2004 United States Senate election in Florida


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The 2004 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Graham decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Graham made an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The primary elections were held on August 31, 2004. Republican Mel Martínez won the open seat with 49.4% of the vote to Democratic nominee Betty Castor's 48.3%. With a margin of 1.1%, this election was the closest race of the 2004 Senate election cycle. This was the first open-seat United States Senate election in Florida for this seat since 1974.

2004 United States Senate election in Florida
← 1998 November 2, 2004 2010 →
 
Nominee Mel Martínez Betty Castor
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,672,864 3,590,201
Percentage 49.43% 48.32%

County results

Martinez:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Castor:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Bob Graham
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mel Martínez
Republican

 
County results

Martínez was supported by the Bush Administration.

 
County results
Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[3] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2004

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Betty
Castor (D) 		Mel
Martínez (R) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[citation needed] August 24 500 ± 4.5% 44% 44%
Survey USA[citation needed] September 12 602 ± 4.1% 49% 45% 5% 1%
Quinnipiac[4] September 18–21, 2004 819 ± 3.4 43% 42% 0% 14%
Gallup[citation needed] September 18 674 ± 4.0% 51% 45% 0% 4%
Survey USA[citation needed] October 1 706 ± 3.8% 46% 50% 3% 1%
Quinnipiac[5] October 1–5, 2004 717 ± 3.7 47% 48% 0% 5%
Mason-Dixon[citation needed] October 4 625 ± 4.0% 41% 46% 1% 12%
UNF[citation needed] October 10 641 ± 4.0% 38% 35% 15% 12%
Mason-Dixon[citation needed] October 14 625 ± 4.0% 45% 45% 1% 9%
Survey USA[citation needed] October 15 596 ± 4.1% 47% 49% 3% 1%
Quinnipiac[6] October 15–19, 2004 808 ± 3.5 47% 47% 0% 5%
Research 2000[citation needed] October 18 48% 48% 4% 4%
Miami Herald[citation needed] October 19 800 ± 3.5% 44% 44%
Survey USA[citation needed] October 22 741 ± 3.7% 50% 47%
Insider Advantage[citation needed] October 22 400 ± 5.0% 44% 46%
Quinnipiac[7] October 22–26, 2004 944 ± 3.2 46% 49% 0% 5%
The New York Times[citation needed] October 23 802 ± 3.0% 47% 44% 0% 10%
Mason Dixon[citation needed] October 26 625 ± 4.0% 46% 47% 6%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup[citation needed] October 28 1138 ± 4.0% 48% 46% 5%
Quinnipiac University[citation needed] October 31 1098 ± 3.0% 44% 49% 6%
Zogby International[citation needed] October 31 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% 0% 7%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

edit

  1. ^ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
  2. ^ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
  3. ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  4. ^ Quinnipiac
  5. ^ Quinnipiac
  6. ^ Quinnipiac
  7. ^ Quinnipiac
  8. ^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
  9. ^ "Voter Registration - Yearly - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". Archived from the original on December 5, 2016. Retrieved December 6, 2016.

Debates

Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats

Republicans