October 2024 Iranian strikes against Israel


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On 1 October 2024, Iran launched 181[note 1] ballistic missiles at targets in Israel in at least two waves, marking the largest attack during the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict.[10] The missile attack was codenamed Operation True Promise 2 (Persian: عملیات وعده صادق ۲) by Iran.[11]

Iranian strikes against Israel
Part of the 2024 Iran–Israel conflict and the spillover of the Israel–Hamas war

Missile interceptions in Lower Galilee, 19:41 IDT

TypeMissile strike
Locations

Weapons launched from Iran

Commanded byAli Khamenei[1]
TargetIsraeli military facilities[2] Nevatim Airbase, Tel Nof Airbase, and the headquarters of Mossad
Date1 October 2024
Executed by Iranian Revolutionary Guards[3]
Outcome
  • Minor damage to airbases (per Israel)[4]
  • Damages to school in Gedera and a restaurant in Tel Aviv[5][6]
Casualties1 Palestinian civilian killed (by missile debris);[7] 2 Israeli civilians lightly injured,[8] 2 Jordanian civilians lightly injured (by shrapnel)[9]

The attack triggered sirens across Israel, with explosions reported in several areas, including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.[12] Direct hits occurred at Nevatim Airbase in the Negev,[13] and missiles damaged a school in Gedera,[5] a restaurant in Tel Aviv,[5][6] and residential houses in Hod HaSharon.[14] Two Israelis[5][6] and four Palestinians[15] sustained minor injuries, while two Jordanian civilians were hurt by shrapnel.[9] The sole fatality was a 38-year-old Palestinian man from Gaza, who was killed by falling missile debris near Jericho.[16][17][15]

Iran claimed the attack was in "self-defense",[18][19] in retaliation for Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, as well as its assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian IRGC general Abbas Nilforoushan.[12] Earlier in April of the same year, Israel had attacked Iran's consulate in Damascus, followed by retaliatory strikes between the two nations.[20]

The attacks did not appear to cause extensive damage.[21] Iran said that 90% of the missiles fired had hit their targets.[22] The IDF, however, said that the majority of missiles were intercepted.[22] Censoring specific missile impact locations,[23] the IDF stated that it fully maintained its air force operational capability during the attack.[6] The US Pentagon confirmed that the US Navy had fired around a dozen interceptors, with assistance from unspecified partners.[24] A senior U.S. official stated that many missiles either failed to launch or did not reach Israeli airspace.[25] Jordan also reported that its air defenses intercepted several missiles and drones over its airspace.[24]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the attack a "big mistake" and vowed that Iran "will pay" for it.[26] The US promised "severe consequences" and pledged to work with Israel to ensure Iran faces repercussions for its actions.[24] Iran, in turn, threatened "crushing attacks" if Israel retaliated.[27] The attack exposed deep public divisions within the Iranian public, as some celebrated the strikes while many feared retaliation and already-escalating economic instability.[28][29][30]

Background

On 31 July 2024, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran by an apparent Israeli attack.[31] Nasser Kanaani, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, condemned this assassination and said that Haniyeh's "blood will never be wasted".[32] On 27 September 2024, Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.[33] On 29 September, the New York Times reported that Iranian officials debated how to respond to Nasrallah's death.[34]

In the hours prior to the attacks, the United States warned about a possible Iranian attack.[35] A U.S. official told Reuters, "A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran".[36] Anonymous Pentagon officials stated that the U.S. troops that were stationed in the Middle East weren't attacked during the event.[37]

Previous Iran–Israel strikes (April 2024)

Israeli strike on Iranian consulate

On April 1, Israel aircraft attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus,[38] killing two Iranian generals[39] and a Syrian woman and her child.[40] The Israeli attack was condemned by many countries,[41][42][43] with many countries saying that an attack on a diplomatic mission is a violation of international law.[44]

Iranian strikes on Israel

Iran retaliated on 13 April by launching attacks against Israel with loitering munitions, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. The attacks were launched by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in collaboration with several Iranian-backed Islamist militas.[45][original research] The strike sent around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel and the Golan Heights.[note 2]

Israel said that the coalition whose defensive efforts were codenamed Iron Shield,[46] destroyed 99 percent of the incoming weapons,[47][48][49] most before they reached Israeli airspace.[50] American, British, French, and Jordanian air forces also shot some down.[51][52][53] The missiles caused minor damage to the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, which remained operational.[54][55][56] In Israel, a child was injured by part of a missile, and 31 other people either suffered minor injuries while rushing to shelters or were treated for anxiety.[54][55] The attack was the largest attempted drone strike in history,[57][58] Iran's attacks drew criticism from the United Nations, several world leaders, and political analysts, who warned that they risk escalating into a full-blown regional war.[59][60][61][62]

Israeli strikes on Iran

Israel retaliated by executing limited strikes on Iran on 18 April 2024.[63] The Israeli strike reportedly destroyed an air defense radar site guarding the Natanz nuclear facility, aiming to communicate Israel's capabilities to strike Iran without escalating tensions further.[64]

Prior escalation in the Middle East

In September 2024, a major escalation took place in the Hezbollah–Israel conflict that started after the Iranian-backed group initiated attacks against Israel on 8 October 2023, a day after Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel. During this month, Hezbollah suffered major setbacks that degraded its capabilities[65][66] and killed many of its leadership,[67][68] including the 17 and 18 September explosions of its handheld communication devices and the 20 September assassination of Ibrahim Aqil, commander of the elite Redwan Force.[69][70] Airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) also targeted Hezbollah's military bases, command centers, airstrips, and weapons caches across southern Lebanon.[71] These setbacks culminated in the 27 September assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and other senior commanders, including Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah in south Lebanon, in an airstrike that destroyed their underground headquarters in Beirut's Dahieh suburbs.[72][73] Several days later, on 1 October 2024, Israel launched a ground operation into southern Lebanon, which, according to the IDF, aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's forces and infrastructure that posed a threat to civilian communities in northern Israel.[74][75][76] The killing of Nasrallah delivered a significant setback to the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance", a network of proxy Islamist militias that Iran has long employed to target both Israel and Western interests in the Middle East.[65]

Strikes

 
On-screen alert during an i24NEWS broadcast

According to the IDF, around 200 missiles were fired by Iran in at least two waves,[10][12][77] using hypersonic missiles such as the Fattah weapons system.[78][79] Ballistic missiles are notably harder to intercept than the cruise missiles and drones that comprised a significant portion of the Iranian assault on Israel in April 2024.[21] Iranian launch sites included Tabriz, Kashan, and the outskirts of Tehran.[80] According to a senior Iranian official, the order to launch missiles at Israel came from the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who stayed in a secure location.[81] Iran's claim of responsibility for the attack was broadcast on state television. Within the statement was a warning that it was only a "first wave", without further elaboration.[82] A senior U.S. official stated that many missiles either failed to launch or did not reach Israeli airspace.[25]

Two Israeli civilians were reported to be injured lightly by the strikes.[83] Several Palestinians in Jericho were injured by rocket fragments.[8][84] A 37-year-old[85] Palestinian man identified as Sameh al-Asali, a laborer originally from Gaza, was killed in Jericho by a shrapnel from an intercepted missile in an incident captured on CCTV.[86][22][87]

Footage showed a mix of missile interceptions and impacts, including above the Temple Mount.[5] The IDF said that the Israeli Air Force's operational capability remained intact during the attack, with its planes, air defenses, and air traffic control functioning normally.[6] Missiles, or missile debris, were reported to have fallen in Tel Aviv, Dimona, Hora, Hod HaSharon, Beersheba, and Rishon LeZion.[88] Fragments were also found in the Palestinian village of Sanur, near Jenin.[5] KAN News and Hevrat HaHadashot reported that a blast caused damage to around 100 homes in Hod HaSharon, in central Israel.[14][89] A missile struck an open area in northern Tel Aviv, damaging a restaurant, while another caused significant destruction at the Chabad School in Gedera, leaving a large crater.[5]

Videos geolocated by CNN showed a significant number of Iranian rockets hitting the Nevatim Airbase.[13][90] It is unclear how much damage this attack caused; Iranian media reported that several of Israel's most advanced aircraft had been destroyed, but provided no evidence to support this assertion.[91] Tel Nof Airbase appeared to have been struck by several ballistic missiles, with at least one impact resulting in secondary explosions, most likely from stored munitions.[91] The headquarters of the Mossad near Tel Aviv were targeted, but escaped damage, with the closest ballistic missile apparently landing approximately 500 meters away and no other impacts reported.[91] In some cases, the IDF censor barred Israeli media from publishing the exact locations of missile impacts and the extent of the damage.[23]

The IDF reported intercepting "a large number" of missiles, while Pentagon spokesperson Patrick S. Ryder confirmed that United States Navy destroyers launched about a dozen interceptors against Iranian missiles.[24] National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan mentioned that other U.S. "partners" also helped thwart the attack, but did not specify who they were. Jordan stated that its air defenses intercepted missiles and drones over Jordanian airspace during the incident.[24]

Reactions

In the immediate response to the attack, Israel, Iraq, and Jordan closed their airspaces. Israel also reported that its security cabinet was convening in a bunker in Jerusalem.[92][93][94]

Various airlines changed their flight routes as a result of airspace closures.[95] The president of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides called for an extraordinary session of the National Security Council to discuss the ongoing developments and activated the "Estia" plan in order to get foreign nationals out of Lebanon and Israel upon request.[96][97]

Government officials

Iran

Iran's vice president for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif contended that Iran had the right to self-defense against Israeli attacks on Iranian soil and criticized Western countries for aiding "the Israeli genocide in Gaza" and acquiesing "in Israeli aggressions against Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and other countries in the region".[98] Iran's Foreign Minister further added the missile strikes targeted "solely military & security sites in charge of genocide".[99]

According to the IRGC, Iran has threatened to carry out "crushing attacks" if Israel responds.[27] Khamenei is reported to be staying in a secure location.[100] Iran said that 90% of its missiles had hit their targets, but the Israeli military disputed this claim, saying that "a large number" of missiles were intercepted.[22]

Iranian state media alleged that up to 20 F-35 fighter jets were destroyed in the strike and that the Nevatim Airbase was heavily damaged.[101]

Iran suspended all flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport following the missile attacks.[102]

Crowds celebrated the strikes in Tehran and other cities, waving the Hezbollah, Iranian, Palestinian and Lebanese flags while holding portraits of Hassan Nasrallah.[103]

Israel

Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich commented on the situation, stating, "Like Gaza, Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon, Iran will regret the moment."[104]

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Iran made a "big mistake" and that Israel will attack its enemies anywhere in the Middle East.[105][106] During the attacks, the Security Cabinet of Israel convened in a bunker in Jerusalem.[107]

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi stated: "We will choose when to exact the price, and prove our precise and surprising attack capabilities, in accordance with the guidance of the political echelon."[105]

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett called for action against Iran's nuclear program.[108] An anonymous high-ranking Israeli security official has called for Israel to take strong measures against Iran's leadership.[109]

United States

During a press briefing, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated: "there will be severe consequences for this attack and we will work with Israel to make that the case."[24]

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller called on "every nation in the world must join us in condemning" the attack. He added that "This event had nothing to do with Iran's sovereignty. It has to do with the fact that a number of the terrorist organizations that Iran has set up for years as a way to undermine and attack the State of Israel have been weakened first over the past few months and then most recently over the past few weeks, To the extent that any Iranian officials have been killed in the past few days in Lebanon or in Syria, it's because they were meeting with terrorist leaders."[24]

US vice president Kamala Harris criticized the Iranian missile strike as "reckless and brazen," asserting that it underscores Iran's role as a "destabilizing, dangerous force" in the Middle East. She stated that "Iran is not only a threat to Israel; it also poses risks to American personnel in the region, American interests, and innocent civilians who suffer from Iran-based and backed terrorist proxies." She concluded that the US "will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend US forces and interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists" and "will continue to work with our allies and partners to disrupt Iran's aggressive behavior and hold them accountable."[24]

US senator Lindsey Graham called for Iran's missile attack to be a "breaking point" and urged the Biden administration to coordinate "an overwhelming response" with Israel against Iran, saying that this was a moment of decision "for the free world regarding Iran". Senator Marco Rubio said that a large scale retaliation was "certain to follow".[110]

Palestine

Hamas congratulated the IRGC for the attacks "on large areas of our occupied territories", saying it was "in response to the occupation's ongoing crimes against the peoples of the region, and in revenge for the blood of our nation's heroic martyrs; the martyr Mujahid Ismail Haniyeh, the martyr His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and the martyr Major General Abbas Nilforoushan."[111]

Others

  •   Argentina: The government condemned the "dangerous and unjustified" attack against Israel, and reaffirmed that Israel has a "right to legitimate defence."[112]
  •   Australia: Prime minister Anthony Albanese condemned the attack, calling it a "dangerous escalation".[113]
  •   China: China said the failure to achieve a "comprehensive and lasting" ceasefire in Gaza was the "root cause" of the increased tension.[114]
  •   European Union: Foreign policy chief Josep Borrell condemned the attack and said that the EU is committed to protect Israeli security.[115]
  •   Finland: Minister for Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen condemned the attack, calling both parties to show utmost restraint.[116][117]
  •   France: President Emmanuel Macron strongly condemned the attack, stating that the French Army is "committed to Israel's security" and that military resources in the Middle East have been mobilized to counter the "Iranian threat".[118]
  •   Germany: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock condemned the strikes in the 'strongest possible terms' and called for an immediate cessation of the attacks. She added that Iran "is driving the region further to the brink of the abyss."[85]
  •   Japan: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba condemned the attack, calling it "unacceptable" and seeks de-escalation through other means.[119]
  •   Netherlands: Foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp condemned the strike. In a telephone call, Veldkamp urged his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi to refrain from further attacks and indicated that de-escalation in the region is now the utmost importance.[120]
  •   Serbia: Foreign minister Marko Đurić condemned the strikes and stated that "Serbia stands with the Jewish people".[121]
  •   Spain: Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez condemned the attack and asked for "this spiral of violence" to end, while calling once again for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.[122]
  •   United Nations: Secretary-General António Guterres issued a statement condemning the "broadening of the Middle East conflict", though he did not specifically mention Iran.[85] In response, Israel's Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, announced that Guterres would be barred from entering the country due to his failure to condemn the Iranian missile attack.[123] Later at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Guterres officially condemned the attack, specifically mentioning Iran.[124][125]
  •   United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Iran's "aggression" against Israel and Iran's attempts "to harm innocent Israelis", saying the UK stands with Israel and recognizes its "right to self-defence".[126] Defence Secretary John Healey confirmed that the British Armed Forces "played their part" in defending Israel during the strikes.[127]

Media and advocacy groups

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee sent text messages to its supporters telling to contact their representatives and demand support for Israel against Iran.[128]

Public response in Iran

Iran's missile attack on Israel revealed profound rifts within the Iranian public.[28] In Tehran, a small crowd gathered to celebrate the missile strikes, with some holding posters of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, waving flags and chanting anti-Israel and anti-American slogans. Iranian state television played celebratory music. Despite the jubilation, others expressed concern over potential retaliation from Israel and the United States, fearing it could escalate into a larger conflict.[30]

Online discussions revealed not all supported the strike, with many expressing concern about the potential for war and the impact on their daily lives.[28] The attack intensified fears of economic instability, especially amid rumors that Israel might retaliate by targeting Iran's vital oil infrastructure.[28] This led to panic at petrol stations, with long lines of people rushing to secure fuel.[28] The incident also dampened hopes for diplomatic progress, particularly after the recent election of President Masoud Pezeshkian, which had briefly inspired optimism for easing regional tensions.[28]

The missile strike highlighted the split between nationalists, who viewed the government's actions with pride, and those worried about further conflict, economic deterioration, and the suppression of domestic reform movements. Some Iranians called for regime change as the solution, while others stressed the importance of resolving the country’s future without foreign intervention, fearing that external involvement could lead to further chaos.[28]

Public response in the Arab World

Palestinians celebrated the strikes in Jabalia and other parts of the Gaza Strip, while fireworks were set off in the West Bank in support of the strikes.[103] An 18-year-old Palestinian was reportedly killed by his own weapon during celebrations in the Tulkarm camp.[129]

Public celebrations over the strikes were also held in Beirut, Lebanon,[103] Baghdad, Iraq,[130] and in Sanaa, Yemen.[103]

Analysis

Arash Azizi, writing for The Atlantic, frames Iran's missile strikes as a move by Supreme Leader Khamenei to salvage his regime's reputation. Azizi notes that "Tehran was fast losing face, and Khamenei apparently made up his mind to shore up his anti-Israel credibility." He further asserts that the escalation marks a "terrifying moment for Iran", after the country has long maintained a position of supporting militias opposed to Israel and Western interests while avoiding direct conflict. Azizi argues that this approach was never sustainable, as Iran's military capabilities fall far short of Israel's, and its population, suffering from economic issues, does not share the regime's hostility toward Israel. Furthermore, Iran's weak air-defense systems leave the nation vulnerable.[29]

Euronews reported that some observers viewed Iran's missile strike as an expensive, staged display intended to influence public sentiment. The outlet also noted that the timing and broad distribution of the strikes during rush hour raised speculation about whether the attack was planned to shape public opinion.[131]

The Wall Street Journal noted that the missile attack "means that Iran is now facing potentially devastating blows to its own military or civilian infrastructure, opening an escalation spiral against a more powerful foe."[21] The New York Times reported that following the Iranian strikes, "Israel seems ready to strike Iran directly, in a much more forceful and public way than it ever has."[25] Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar think-tank, told the WSJ that Iran lacks the industrial capacity for a prolonged conflict and cannot rely on Russia for resupply, as Russia needs its missiles for the war in Ukraine. He suggested that if Israel retaliates significantly, it would be in Iran's interest to absorb the blow rather than escalate tensions.[21]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Number of missiles according to Israeli officials
  2. ^ Internationally recognized as Syrian territory, occupied and claimed by Israel, recognized as Israeli territory by the United States

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