2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico


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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Mexico voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


A Western state in the American Southwest, since gaining statehood, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election except for 1976 (only backing the losing candidate by 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates consistently winning the state since 2008. New Mexico's Democratic lean can be largely credited to the state's sizeable Latino population, which in recent years has become a plurality. The state is favored to remain in the Democratic column in 2024.[2]

Before Joe Biden withdrew, it was considered a battleground state by some.[3][4] However, Harris is still widely expected to win New Mexico in 2024.[5][6]

The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.[9]

New Mexico Libertarian primary, June 4, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
Lars Mapstead 432 56.5%
None of the Above 332 43.5%
Total: 764 100.0%
Source:[10]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in New Mexico:[11]

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[12] Likely D June 12, 2024
Inside Elections[13] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Likely D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] Likely D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[16] Solid D August 18, 2024
CNN[17] Lean D January 14, 2024
The Economist[18] Likely D August 20, 2024
538[19] Likely D June 11, 2024
RCP[20] Lean D June 26, 2024

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[21][A] September 19−22, 2024 708 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 44% 6%
SurveyUSA[22] September 12–18, 2024 619 (LV) ± 5.4% 50% 42% 8%
September 10, 2024 The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
Emerson College[23] August 20–22, 2024 956 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 42% 6%
54%[b] 46% –
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[24] September 6–9, 2024 521 (LV) – 49% 44% – 1% 1% 5%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[25] August 20–22, 2024 956 (RV) ± 3.1% 51% 40% 3% 0% 0% 0% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[26] August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 47% 41% 6% – 0% 0% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[27] July 31 – August 3, 2024 493 (LV) – 44% 37% 8% – 0% 0% 11%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Research & Polling Inc.[28][c] September 6–13, 2024 532 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 39% 3% 9%
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  3. ^ Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal
  4. ^ a b The Free New Mexico Party is the state affiliate of the national Libertarian Party, which nominated Oliver and ter Maat. The Libertarian Party of New Mexico, which separated from the national party in 2022 and is now affiliated to Liberal Party USA, nominated Ebke and Butler.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  2. ^ a b Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  3. ^ a b Poll commissioned by the New Mexico Political Report
  4. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  3. ^ Plummer, Kate (July 3, 2024). "Joe Biden's Lead Wiped Out in Critical Battleground States". Newsweek. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  4. ^ https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list
  5. ^ Heild, Colleen (July 21, 2024). "New Mexico political battleground shifts with Biden exit". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 New Mexico: Multi-Candidate". RealClearPolling. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  7. ^ "New Mexico Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  8. ^ "New Mexico Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
  9. ^ "Become Ungovernable". 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
  10. ^ "Unofficial Results 2024 Primary June 4, 2024". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
  11. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved July 5, 2024.
  17. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  18. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  19. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  20. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  21. ^ "Election 2024: Trump +1 in Nevada; Harris +3 in Minnesota, +6 in New Mexico". Rasmussen Reports. September 27, 2024.
  22. ^ "Kamala Harris 8 Points Atop Donald Trump in Land of Enchantment, Poised To Keep New Mexico Blue For 5th Consecutive Presidential Election:". SurveyUSA. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  23. ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
  24. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (6 – 9 September 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. September 10, 2024.
  25. ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
  26. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 19, 2024.
  27. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 6, 2024.
  28. ^ Boyd, Dan (September 15, 2024). "Journal Poll: Kamala Harris comfortably ahead of Donald Trump in New Mexico". The Albuquerque Journal.
  29. ^ a b "Hotline - Wake-Up Call!". National Journal. July 1, 2024.
  30. ^ Reichbach, Matthew (June 18, 2024). "Post-primary, Biden leads Trump in NM". New Mexico Political Report.
  31. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  32. ^ a b Reichbach, Matthew (August 28, 2023). "Biden leads in NM in potential 2024 matchups". New Mexico Political Report.
  33. ^ a b "DeSantis is tied with Biden in Virginia and within striking distance of the President in three other '24 "reach" states. Trump is poised to lose these four states for a third time". X. May 12, 2023.
  34. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti in Dead Heat for Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  35. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 14, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Democratic Governor Lujan Grisham Holds Five-Point Lead Over Ronchetti in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  36. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  37. ^ "Ballot-Qualified Libertarian Party of New Mexico Nominates Laura Ebke for President". ballot-access.org. August 31, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.