October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Snap parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria in 27 October 2024,^[1][2] after all three attempts to form a government following the latest June 2024 elections failed. They will be the country's sixth snap elections since 2021.

October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

← June 2024 27 October 2024 TBD →

All 240 seats in the National Assembly 121 seats needed for a majority

Party Leader Current seats GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 68 PP–DB Kiril Petkov 39 Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 38 APS Dzhevdet Chakarov 25 DPS–NN Delyan Peevski 22 BSP–OL Atanas Zafirov 17 ITN Slavi Trifonov 16 Velichie Ivelin Mihaylov 6 Independents N/A 9 Incumbent Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev (caretaker) Independent

Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.^[3][4] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.^[5][6]

On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.^[7] After nine months, the switch failed to materialise with negotiations breaking down,^{[8][9][10][11]} and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed as caretaker prime minister,^[12] and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024.^[13][14]

The June 2024 elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, had the lowest turnout (33%) since the end of communist rule in 1989.^[3] It resulted in GERB–SDS winning most of the votes and 68 seats, with no party or alliance obtaining enough seats to form a majority in the National Assembly.^[15] The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,^[16] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June.^[17] Government formation attempts were given to GERB, PP–DB and There is Such a People (ITN), with the final attempt failing on 5 August.^[18][19][20]

On 9 August, the Bulgarian President as a consequence instead appointed the Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, as the next caretaker prime minister.^[21] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August, and the upcoming next parliamentary elections were scheduled for 20 October 2024.^[22] Grancharova-Kozhareva made the controversial decision to propose that the incumbent minister of the interior, Kalin Stoyanov, should remain in his role, but this was opposed by president Rumen Radev. Radev rejected the government proposal, delaying the upcoming election.^[23]

Following the rejection of Grancharova-Kozhareva, Radev re-appointed Dimitar Glavchev as the caretaker prime minister,^[24] and his government proposal was sworn in on 27 August, and the elections were set for the 27 October.^[25][26]

One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in.^[27]

The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it.^[28]

A rift in Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave.^[29]

As of the end of July 2024, the composition of the Assembly was as follows:

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from four to nineteen seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for all parties or electoral coalitions, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.^[31][32]

Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.^[33][34] Boxes shaded in grey are not officially parties, but key groups in each alliance.

It was reported that despite suggesting they could run, Volt, Bulgarian National Union and VMRO did not submit their lists in time to partake in the elections.^[35] NDPS also wished to partake, but its registration was deleted.^[36]

On 27 August, the central leadership organisation of the DPS removed Delyan Peevski as chairman of the party, and seven MPs close to Peevski were expelled from the party. This move has been linked to Ahmed Dogan, MP and honorary chairman of the party.^[37][38][39] Peevski called the move unconstitutional,^[8] and gained control of the official party website.^[40] This follows the rift in the party following the election, where the parliamentary group split.^[29] The controversy surrounding Peevski has led to two groups emerging,^[41] DPS – A New Beginning^[42] and Democracy, Rights and Freedoms,^[43] with both groups registering as electoral coalitions with the acronym DPS in order to get around the rules of the electoral commission.^[6][44] After DPS–Peevski was recognized to be the legitimate DPS by the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria, DPS~Dogan changed their name to "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (АПС instead of ДПС) and registered without listing DPS as a member of the alliance.^[45] The DPS mayors split 50:50 between both groups.^[46]

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data by excluding undecided and non-voters.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority and all parties need to pass the 4% threshold to be elected to the National Assembly.

Allegations of vote buying are common occurrances in the Bulgarian electoral cycle,^[47] with former press focus on vote buying among the Roma community in the country.^[48] During the election campaign, a deputy, Ivaylo Mirchev, from PP–DB, claimed that there was widespread vote buying being conducted by DPS–Peevski, claiming people were being paid up to 500 BGN ($286) per vote.^[49]

The interior minister, Atanas Ilkov, told a parliamentary hearing that he had received two alerts of vote buying by 25 September.^[50] A national police operation was set up to target the practice began operating two days later.^[51]