2024 United States House of Representatives election ratings: Difference between revisions - Wikipedia

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{{short description|none}} <!-- "none" is preferred when the title alone is adequate; see [[WP:SDNONE]] -->

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{{use mdy dates|date=February 2023}}

{{Infobox election

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The [[2024 United States House of Representatives elections]] will be held November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 [[List of United States congressional districts|congressional districts]] across each of the 50 [[U.S. state]]s. The six [[Delegate (United States Congress)|non-voting delegates]] from the [[District of Columbia]] and the inhabited [[Insular area|U.S. territories]] will also be elected. Numerous [[2024 United States elections|federal, state, and local elections]], including the [[2024 U.S. Senate elections]] and [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 presidential election]], will also be held on this date.

== Election ratings ==

=== Latest published ratings for competitive seats ===

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The 10595 seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. Of the remaining 340 seats, 166 are considered "safe" Democratic, and 173 "safe" Republican. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the [[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds [[supermajority]] (if all members are sitting and voting).

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! Incumbent

! Last result<ref name="2020results">{{Cite news | url=https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house | title=House of Representatives Results: GOP wins the majority | publisher=CNN | accessdate=February 2, 2023}}</ref>

! [[Cook Political Report|Cook]]<br />{{small|AugustOct. 163,<br />2024}}<ref name="CPRratings1">{{Cite web | url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings| title=2024 House Race Ratings| publisher=Cook Political Report| accessdate=JulyOctober 314, 20232024}}</ref>

! [[Stuart Rothenberg|IE]]<br />{{small|JuneSep. 2026,<br />2024}}<ref name="IEratings1">{{Cite web |url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house |title=2024 House Ratings |publisher=Inside Elections |date=MaySeptember 926, 2024}}</ref>

! [[Sabato's Crystal Ball|Sabato]]<br />{{small|JulySep. 3119,<br />2024}}<ref name="SCBratings1">{{Cite web |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/ |title=2024 House |publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball |date=FebruarySeptember 2319, 20232024}}</ref>

! [[Decision Desk HQ|ED]]<br />{{small|MarchAug. 2226,<br />2024}}<ref>{{Cite web |title=Election Ratings |url=https://elections-daily.com/election-ratings/ |access-date=20232024-0508-0529 |website=Elections Daily |language=en-US}}</ref>

! [[CNalysis]]<br />{{small|AugustSep. 714,<br />2024}}<ref>{{Cite web |title='24 House Forecast |url=https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/house |access-date=2023-11-19 |website=CNalysis |language=en-US}}</ref>

! [[Decision Desk HQ|DDHQ]]/[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]<br />{{small|AugustSep. 2625,<br />2024}}<ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 House Forecast {{!}} The Hill and DDHQ |url=https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/ |access-date=2024-0809-26 |website=The Hill}}</ref>

! [[RealClearPolitics|RCP]]<br />{{small|Oct. 2,<br />2024}}<ref>https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/house/2024/toss-up</ref>

|-

! {{ushr|AL|2|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D|Flip}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Mary|Peltola}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-55.0 | 55.0% D

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

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| {{Shading PVI|R|6}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} | {{sortname|Eli|Crane}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=53.8 | 53.8% R

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

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! {{ushr|AZ|4|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|CA|13|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

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! {{ushr|CA|22|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D|Flip}}

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! {{ushr|CA|25|X}}

| {{Shading PVI|D|6}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Raul|Ruiz|dab=politician}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-57.4 | 57.4% D

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|CA|27|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

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! {{ushr|CA|45|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Republican}} | {{sortname|Michelle|Steel}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=52.4 | 52.4% R

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|RTossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|LeanTilt|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|RTossup}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

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! {{ushr|CA|49|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{party shading/Vacant}} | Open seat{{efn|Incumbent Republican [[Lauren Boebert]] is running in [[Colorado's 4th congressional district]].}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=50.1 | 50.1% R

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

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! {{ushr|CO|5|X}}

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| style="background:#f99" | Very Likely R

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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! {{ushr|CO|8|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

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! {{ushr|CT|2|X}}

| {{Shading PVI|D|3}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Joe|Courtney|dab=politician}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-58.2 | 58.2% D

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

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| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

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! {{ushr|FL|7|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

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! {{ushr|FL|9|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

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! {{ushr|FL|13|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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| style="background:#f99" | Very Likely R

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! {{ushr|FL|23|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Jared|Moskowitz}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-51.6 | 51.6% D

| {{USRaceRating|LikelySolid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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! {{ushr|FL|28|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

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! {{ushr|GA|2|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Eric|Sorensen|dab=politician}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-51.9 | 51.9% D

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

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! {{ushr|IN|1|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Frank J.|Mrvan}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-52.8 | 52.8% D

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|IA|1|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Republican}} | {{sortname|Mariannette|Miller-Meeks}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=53.4 | 53.4% R

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|RTossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|RTossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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| style="background:#f99" | Very Likely R

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

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! {{ushr|IA|3|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Republican}} | {{sortname|Zach|Nunn}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=50.2 | 50.2% R

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|RTossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|RTossup}}

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| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D|Flip}}

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! {{ushr|ME|2|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-53.1 | 53.1% D

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|DTossup}}

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! {{ushr|MD|6|X}}

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| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|MI|3|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

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! {{ushr|MI|4|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| style="background:#f99" | Very Likely R

| {{USRaceRating|LikelySafe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

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! {{ushr|MI|7|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Elissa|Slotkin}} <br />{{small|(retiring)}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-51.7 | 51.7% D

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-53.1 | 53.1% D

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-50.9 | 50.9% D

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|MO|2|X}}

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| style="background:#f99" | Very Likely R

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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! {{ushr|MT|1|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Republican}} | {{sortname|Ryan|Zinke}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=49.6 | 49.6% R

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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| {{Party shading/Republican}} | {{sortname|Don|Bacon}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=51.3 | 51.3% R

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|flip}}

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! {{ushr|NV|1|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|NV|3|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|NV|4|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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! {{ushr|NH|1|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-54.0 | 54.0% D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

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! {{ushr|NH|2|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-55.8 | 55.8% D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|LikelySafe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

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! {{ushr|NJ|2|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

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! {{ushr|NJ|3|X}}

| {{Shading PVI|D|5}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Andy|Kim|dab=politician}} <br />{{small|(retiring)}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-55.5 | 55.5% D

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

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! {{ushr|NJ|7|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

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! {{ushr|NM|2|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

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! {{ushr|NM|3|X}}

| {{Shading PVI|D|4}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Teresa Leger|Fernandez}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-58.2 | 58.2% D

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

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! {{ushr|NY|1|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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! {{ushr|NY|2|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

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! {{ushr|NY|3|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|Flip}}

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| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=50.3 | 50.3% R

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

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! {{ushr|NY|18|X}}

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| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-50.6 | 50.6% D

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D|Flip}}

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! {{ushr|NY|22|X}}

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| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|TiltLean|D|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

Line 825 ⟶ 869:

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|NC|6|X}}

Line 836 ⟶ 881:

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R|Flip}}

|-

! {{ushr|NC|11|X}}

Line 846 ⟶ 892:

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|LikelySafe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|-

! {{ushr|NC|13|X}}

Line 858 ⟶ 905:

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R|Flip}}

|-

! {{ushr|NC|14|X}}

Line 869 ⟶ 917:

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R|Flip}}

|-

! {{ushr|OH|1|X}}

Line 879 ⟶ 928:

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

|-

Line 885 ⟶ 935:

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Marcy|Kaptur}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-56.6 | 56.6% D

| {{USRaceRating|TossupLean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

Line 902 ⟶ 953:

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|OR|4|X}}

Line 912 ⟶ 964:

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

|-

Line 918 ⟶ 971:

| {{Party shading/Republican}} | {{sortname|Lori|Chavez-DeRemer}}

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=50.9 | 50.9% R

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

Line 935 ⟶ 989:

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

|-

! {{ushr|PA|1|X}}

Line 946 ⟶ 1,001:

| style="background:#f99" | Very Likely R

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

|-

! {{ushr|PA|7|X}}

Line 957 ⟶ 1,013:

| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|PA|8|X}}

Line 968 ⟶ 1,025:

| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|PA|10|X}}

Line 974 ⟶ 1,032:

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=53.8 | 53.8% R

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|PA|17|X}}

Line 985 ⟶ 1,044:

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-53.4 | 53.4% D

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

Line 1,001 ⟶ 1,061:

| style="background:#f99" | Very Likely R

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

|-

! {{ushr|TN|5|X}}

Line 1,012 ⟶ 1,073:

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|-

! {{ushr|TX|15|X}}

Line 1,018 ⟶ 1,080:

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=53.3 | 53.3% R

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

Line 1,028 ⟶ 1,091:

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Henry|Cuellar}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-56.7 | 56.7% D

| {{USRaceRating|LeanLikely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

|-

! {{ushr|TX|34|X}}

Line 1,045 ⟶ 1,109:

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|VA|1|X}}

Line 1,056 ⟶ 1,121:

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

|-

! {{ushr|VA|2|X}}

Line 1,065 ⟶ 1,131:

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|LikelyLean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|-

Line 1,073 ⟶ 1,140:

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-52.2 | 52.2% D

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|DTossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|VA|10|X}}

| {{Shading PVI|D|6}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | {{sortname|Jennifer|Wexton}} <br />{{Small|(retiring)}}

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-53.3 | 53.3% D

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|WA|3|X}}

Line 1,089 ⟶ 1,169:

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R|flip}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|WA|5|X}}

Line 1,100 ⟶ 1,181:

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|-

! {{ushr|WA|8|X}}

Line 1,106 ⟶ 1,188:

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value=-53.3 | 53.3% D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|LikelySafe|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| style="background:#99f" | Very Likely D

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|-

! {{ushr|WI|1|X}}

Line 1,122 ⟶ 1,205:

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|-

! {{ushr|WI|3|X}}

Line 1,128 ⟶ 1,212:

| {{Party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value=51.8 | 51.8% R

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|LikelyLean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|LikelyLean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|- class=sortbottom

! colspan=4 | Overall

| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 203<br />R – 210208<br />2224 tossups

| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 209206<br />R – 216<br />1013 tossups<br />

| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 205<br />R – 211<br />19 tossups

| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 207<br />R – 210<br />18 tossups<br />

| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 216<br />R – 208<br />11 tossups<br />

| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 210211<br />R – 215<br />109 tossups<br />

| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D - 196<br />R - 207<br />32 tossups<br />

|}

<references />

===Generic ballot polls===

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2024 House of Representatives elections.

{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%; text-align:center"

|- valign=bottom style="font-size:90%;"

! colspan="7" |Polling aggregates

|-

! style="width:250px;"|Source of poll aggregation

! Date updated

! Dates polled

! Democratic

! Republican

! Others/<br />Undecided<br />{{Efn|Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other parties combined.|name=difference}}

! Lead

|-

|[[RealClearPolitics]]<ref>[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote RealClearPolitics]</ref>

| October 3, 2024

| September 11 – October 1, 2024

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47.1%'''

| 45.3%

| 7.6%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |'''D +1.8%'''

|-

|[[FiveThirtyEight]]<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/ FiveThirtyEight]</ref>

| October 3, 2024

| through October 1, 2024

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47.0%'''

| 45.0%

| 8.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |'''D +2.0%'''

|-

|[[Decision Desk HQ]]<ref>[https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/generic-ballot/ DDHQ/The Hill]</ref>

| October 2, 2024

| through October 1, 2024

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47.0%'''

| 45.6%

| 7.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|'''D +1.4%'''

|-

| colspan="3" | '''Average'''

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47.0%'''

| 45.3%

| 7.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |'''D +1.7%'''

|}

Line 1,148 ⟶ 1,284:

=== Republican-held seats ===

On April 3, 2023, the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]] released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.<ref>{{Cite web |last=RRobinson@DCCC.ORG |date=2023-04-03 |title=DCCC Announces 2023-2024 Districts In Play |url=https://dccc.org/dccc-announces-2023-2024-districts-in-play/ |access-date=2023-07-15 |website=Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee |language=en-US}}</ref>

{{div col}}

# [[Arizona's 1st congressional district|Arizona 1]]: [[David Schweikert]]

# [[Arizona's 6th congressional district|Arizona 6]]: [[Juan Ciscomani]]

Line 1,179 ⟶ 1,315:

# [[Wisconsin's 1st congressional district|Wisconsin 1:]] [[Bryan Steil]]

# [[Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district|Wisconsin 3]]: [[Derrick Van Orden]]

{{div col end}}

=== Democratic-held seats ===

On March 13, 2023, the [[National Republican Congressional Committee]] released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2023-03-13 |title=NRCC Announces 37 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities to Grow GOP House Majority |url=https://www.nrcc.org/2023/03/13/nrcc-announces-37-offensive-pick-up-opportunities-to-grow-gop-house-majority/ |access-date=2023-07-15 |website=NRCC |language=en-US}}</ref> The [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]] also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

{{div col}}

# '''[[Alaska's at-large congressional district|Alaska At-Large]]: [[Mary Peltola]]'''

# [[California's 9th congressional district|California 9]]: [[Josh Harder]]

Line 1,219 ⟶ 1,356:

# '''[[Washington's 3rd congressional district|Washington 3]]: [[Marie Gluesenkamp Perez]]'''

# '''[[Washington's 8th congressional district|Washington 8]]: [[Kim Schrier]]'''

{{div col end}}

== References ==