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Line 3: {{Use dmy dates|date=December 2023}} <!-- Deleted image removed: [[File:Global population size and annual growth rate.png|thumb|261x261px|Global population size and annual growth rate: estimates, 1950-2022, and medium scenario with 95 per cent prediction intervals, 2022-2050. ]] --> <!--Please consider adding new content to a relevant section of the article body, not the lead. The lead section should summarise each section of the article. See [[WP:LEAD]] for guidance.-->'''Human overpopulation''' (or '''human [[population overshoot]]''') <!--Background and Key concepts-->Since 1804, the global human population has [[World population milestones|increased from 1 billion to 8 billion]] due to [[Modern medicine|medical advancements]] and improved [[agricultural productivity]]. Annual world population growth peaked at 2.1% in 1968, and has since dropped to 1.1%.<ref name="OWOD2019"/> According to the most recent [[Projections of population growth|United Nations' projections]], "[t]he global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100."<ref name="UN Projections-2022">{{cite report|title= World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results |publisher= United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division |id = UN DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO.3 |date=2022| url = https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf}}</ref>{{rp|28}} The UN's 2022 projections report predicted that the human population would peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s, before decreasing, noting that [[fertility rates]] are falling worldwide.{{r|UN Projections-2022|p=14–30}} Other models agree that the population will stabilize before or after 2100.<ref name="Roser-2013" /><ref name="Vollset-2020"/><ref name="Science"/> Conversely, other researchers have found that [[Civil registration|national birth registries]] data from 2022 and 2023 that cover half the world's population indicate that the 2022 UN projections overestimated fertility rates by 10 to 20% and are already outdated, that the global fertility rate has possibly already fallen below the [[sub-replacement fertility]] level for the first time in human history, and that the global population will peak at approximately 9.5 billion by 2061.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Ip|first1=Greg|last2=Adamy|first2=Janet|date=May 13, 2024|title=Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed.|work=The Wall Street Journal|publisher=News Corp|url=https://www.wsj.com/world/birthrates-global-decline-cause-ddaf8be2|access-date=May 13, 2024}}</ref> The 2024 UN projections report estimated that world population would peak at 10.29 billion in 2084 and decline to 10.18 billion by 2100, which was 6% lower than the UN had estimated in 2014.<ref>{{cite news|last=Shan|first=Lee Ying|date=July 11, 2024|title=Global population to peak within this century as birth rates fall, United Nations report says|publisher=CNBC|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/12/world-population-to-peak-within-this-century-says-the-united-nations.html|access-date=July 12, 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last=Dougherty|first=Danny|date=July 11, 2024|title=Earth's Population Should Peak Before the End of the Century|work=The Wall Street Journal|publisher=News Corp|url=https://www.wsj.com/world/its-official-earths-population-should-peak-before-the-end-of-the-century-81bbd498|access-date=July 12, 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite report|title=World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results|date=July 11, 2024|publisher=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division|url=https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2024_Key-Messages.pdf|access-date=July 12, 2024}}</ref> | |||