The ITEM club or Independent Treasury Economic Model is an economic forecasting group based in the United Kingdom. It produces quarterly forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media.[1] It was founded in 1977 and is sponsored by Ernst & Young a leading firm of business and financial advisers with some 144,000 staff in 140 countries[2]. Founded in 1977, ITEM is said to be independent of any political, academic or commercial bias. Its independence is underpinned by the untied sponsorship of Ernst & Young. The club is described as the "Ernst & Young ITEM Club" in media coverage.
The UK model is used by HM Treasury for its policy analysis and biannual Industry Act forecasts for the Budget. This enables ITEM to explore the implications and unpublished assumptions behind Government forecasts and policy measures. Uniquely, ITEM can test whether Government claims are consistent and can assess which forecasts are credible and which are not.
John Gaster is their chief economist, taking over from Paul Droop. Gaster began his career at the Bank of England, and more recently an economist and forecaster at Oxford Economic Forecasting.
References
- ^ "UK economic growth to slow over winter, say forecasters". BBC. Retrieved 18 October 2010.
- ^ "Our people", Ernst & Young corporate website. Retrieved on 2010-01-05.
External links
- What is the Item club Ernst & Young website (retrieved 24 July 2009)