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Page title without namespace (page_title)'2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania'
Full page title (page_prefixedtitle)'2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania'
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Edit summary/reason (summary)'Undid revision [[Special:Diff/1237408737|1237408737]] by [[Special:Contributions/Dr. Islington|Dr. Islington]] ([[User talk:Dr. Islington|talk]]) revert unexplained removal; restore in-use footnote definition to fix undefined footnote errors'
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Old page wikitext, before the edit (old_wikitext)'{{Short description|none}} <!-- "none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see [[WP:SDNONE]] --> {{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}} {{main|2024 United States presidential election}} {{row hover highlight}} {{Infobox election | election_name = 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania | country = Pennsylvania | type = Presidential | ongoing = yes | previous_election = 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania | previous_year = 2020 | election_date = November 5, 2024 | next_election = 2028 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania | next_year = ''2028'' | image1 = Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg | nominee1 = [[Kamala Harris]]<br>(presumptive) | party1 = Democratic Party (United States) | home_state1 = [[California]] | running_mate1 = [[2024 Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection|''TBD'']] | image2 = Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg | nominee2 = [[Donald Trump]] | party2 = Republican Party (United States) | home_state2 = [[Florida]] | running_mate2 = [[JD Vance]] | map_image = | map_size = 300px | map_caption = County results<!-- (replace party names with candidates after election and remove unused shades; colors from [[WP:USALEGEND]]) {{col-start}} {{col-2}} '''Democratic''' {{legend|#D3E7FF|30–40%}} {{legend|#B9D7FF|40–50%}} {{legend|#86B6F2|50–60%}} {{legend|#4389E3|60–70%}} {{legend|#1666CB|70–80%}} {{legend|#0645B4|80–90%}} {{legend|#002B84|>90%}} {{col-2}} '''Republican''' {{legend|#FFCCD0|30–40%}} {{legend|#F2B3BE|40–50%}} {{legend|#E27F90|50–60%}} {{legend|#CC2F4A|60–70%}} {{legend|#D40000|70–80%}} {{legend|#AA0000|80–90%}} {{legend|#800000|>90%}} {{col-end}} --> | title = President | before_election = [[Joe Biden]] | before_party = Democratic Party (United States) | after_election = | after_party = | image_size = 200x200px }} {{Elections in Pennsylvania sidebar}} The '''2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania''' is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the [[2024 United States elections]] in which all 50 states plus the [[Washington, D.C.|District of Columbia]] will participate. [[Pennsylvania]] voters will choose electors to represent them in the [[United States Electoral College|Electoral College]] via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following [[United States congressional apportionment|reapportionment]] due to the [[2020 United States census]] in which the state lost a seat.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Wang |first1=Hansi |last2=Jin |first2=Connie |last3=Levitt |first3=Zach |title=Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats |url=https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |publisher=[[NPR]] |access-date=August 20, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |date=April 26, 2021 |url-status=live}}</ref> A [[blue state|purple to slightly blue]] [[Northeastern United States|Northeastern]] state partly within the [[Rust Belt]], Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since [[1972 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|1972]], when [[1972 United States presidential election|49-state landslide]] winner [[Richard Nixon]] won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was [[Ronald Reagan]]. Between [[1992 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|1992]] and [[2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|2012]], Pennsylvania voted Democrat in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from [[Barack Obama]]'s 10.31% victory in [[2008 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|2008]]. In [[2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|2016]], Republican [[Donald Trump]] (whose home state was neighboring [[New York State|New York]] in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the [[Rust Belt]] and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since [[1988 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|1988]], but [[2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|four years later]] lost the state to Democrat [[Joe Biden]] — a native Pennsylvanian representing neighboring [[Delaware]] — by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial [[swing state]] in 2024, with most major news organizations marking it as a tossup.<ref>{{Cite web |title=270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map |url=https://www.270towin.com/ |access-date=2024-03-09 |website=270toWin.com}}</ref> In July 2024, [[Donald Trump]] was the target of an [[Attempted assassination of Donald Trump|assassination attempt]] by [[Thomas Matthew Crooks]] while giving a speech near [[Butler, Pennsylvania]]. ==Primary elections== === Democratic primary === {{main|2024 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary}} The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024. {{2024PADem}} === Republican primary === {{main|2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary}} The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024. {{2024PARep}} ==General election== ===Predictions=== {| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" !Source !Ranking !As of |- | align=left | [[The Cook Political Report]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings |title=2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings |date=December 19, 2023 |website=cookpolitical.com |publisher=[[Cook Political Report]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 9, 2024 |- | align=left | [[Inside Elections]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://insideelections.com/ratings/president |title=Presidential Ratings |date=April 26, 2023 |website=insideelections.com |publisher=[[Inside Elections]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |May 8, 2024 |- | align=left | [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]]<ref name="Sabato's Crystal Ball">{{cite web |date=June 29, 2023|access-date=June 10, 2024 |title=2024 Electoral College ratings |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-president/ |publisher=[[Sabato's Crystal Ball]]}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 3, 2024 |- | align=left | [[Decision Desk HQ]]/[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://elections2024.thehill.com/predictions/president |title=2024 presidential predictions |date=December 14, 2023 |website=elections2024.thehill.com/ |publisher=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | Forecast suspended |July 18, 2024 |- | align=left | [[CNalysis]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/president |title=2024 Presidential Forecast |date=December 30, 2023 |website=projects.cnalysis.com/ |publisher=[[CNalysis]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 24, 2024 |- | align=left | [[CNN]]<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map |title=Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 |publisher=[[CNN]] |access-date=January 14, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 24, 2024 |- | align=left | [[The Economist]]<ref>{{cite web |title=Trump v Biden: The Economist’s presidential election prediction model |url=https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president |website=[[The Economist]] |access-date=June 12, 2024 |language=en}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Lean|R|flip}} |July 21, 2024 |- | align="left" |[[FiveThirtyEight|538]]<ref>{{cite web |last1=Morris |first1=G. Elliott |title=2024 Election Forecast |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ |website=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=June 11, 2024 |language=en |date=June 11, 2024}}</ref> | Forecast suspended | July 21, 2024 |- | align="left" |[[RealClearPolitics|RCP]]<ref>{{cite web|title=2024 RCP Electoral College Map |url=https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college |website=RealClearPolitics |access-date=June 26, 2024 |language=en |date=June 26, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} | June 26, 2024 |} ===Polling=== ;Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Kamala<br/>Harris<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/2024/07/26/swing-state-poll-pa-voters/ The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=commonwealth}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 23–25, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |47% |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''49%''' |'''49%''' |2% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|July 22–23, 2024 |850 (RV) |± 3.3% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |6% |- |850 (RV) |± 3.3% |49%{{efn|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://cdn.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2024/07/PA-July-Toplines.pdf North Star Opinion Research]{{Efn-ua|name=AMG|Poll sponsored by American Greatness}} | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" |July 20–23, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://insideradvantage.com/three-more-battleground-polls-trump-leads-in-pa-nv-az-no-post-shooting-bump-but-large-enthusiasm-gap-harris-trails-trump/ InsiderAdvantage (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |13% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF|Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |6% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |47% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/violence-around-2024-election-feared-by-half-of-swing-state-voters-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 7–13, 2024 |812 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |11% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://archive.today/20231106013743/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |600 (LV) |± 4.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |} ;Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Kamala<br/>Harris<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Cornel<br/>West<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Chase<br/>Oliver<br/>{{nobold|Libertarian}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/2024/07/26/swing-state-poll-pa-voters/ The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=commonwealth}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 23–25, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.5% |'''44%''' |'''44%''' |6% |– |1% |1% |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-22-24-july-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |851 (LV) |– |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |5% |– |0% |0% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |43% |7% |1% |1% |– |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" |July 22–23, 2024 |850 (RV) |± 3.3% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |3% |1% |1% |0% |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |4% |– |2% |– |6% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |7% |0% |3% |– |8% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |6% |0% |2% |– |7% |} ;Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Kamala<br/>Harris<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240719_PA_Civiqs.pdf Civiqs]{{Efn-ua|name=rising}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 13–16, 2024 |536 (RV) |± 4.7% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |5% |5% |} {{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}} <!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = --> ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BTopd55Mr-uiOfZ_0booFKcstbNry-Ku/view SoCal Research]{{efn-ua|name=onpoint}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-21" |July 20–21, 2024 |500 (LV) |± 4.4% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean|Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://insideradvantage.com/three-more-battleground-polls-trump-leads-in-pa-nv-az-no-post-shooting-bump-but-large-enthusiasm-gap-harris-trails-trump/ InsiderAdvantage (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=DNext}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/toplines_2_heartland_battleground_july_2024_all_race_data Rasmussen Reports (R)]{{efn-ua|name=heartland|Poll sponsored by [[The Heartland Institute]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 5–12, 2024 |1,041 (LV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-06/biden-narrows-trump-s-election-lead-in-key-states-after-debate-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-07-06" |July 1–5, 2024 |794 (RV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://nypost.com/2024/07/08/us-news/biden-lags-behind-in-all-of-the-key-battleground-states-by-4-point-average-new-poll/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=DNext|Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" |June 30 – July 2, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.dailywire.com/news/exclusive-poll-shows-bidens-election-problems-widespread-among-democrats-in-key-states Remington Research Group (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" |June 29 – July 1, 2024 |673 (LV) |± 4.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cygn.al/pennsylvania-poll-first-fielded-straddling-the-debate-trump-with-strong-lead-and-mccormick-within-striking-distance-of-casey/ Cygnal (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" |June 27–28, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Common-Ground-Q2-2024-toplines.pdf Commonwealth Foundation] | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" |June 14–19, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.46% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |44% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|June 13–18, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |49%{{efn|With voters who lean towards a given candidate|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/mainstreet_PA_June_2024_Public.pdf Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University] |rowspan="2"|May 30–31, 2024 |1,012 (RV) |± 3.1% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |12% |- |923 (LV) |± 3.1% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://vaportechnology.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/PA-Banners.pdf KAConsulting (R)]{{efn-ua|name=VTA|Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" |May 15–19, 2024 |600 (RV) |– |'''44%''' |'''44%''' |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240522_prime_CSOR.pdf Prime Group]{{Efn-ua|name=citizens|Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump}} | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 9–16, 2024 |487 (RV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''51%''' |49% |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/violence-around-2024-election-feared-by-half-of-swing-state-voters-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 7–13, 2024 |812 (RV) |± 3.0% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)] | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" |May 6–13, 2024 |730 (LV) |± 3.6% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer] |rowspan="2"|April 28 – May 9, 2024 |1,023 (RV) |± 3.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |1,023 (LV) |± 3.6% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/pennsylvania-older-voter-survey-2024-report.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.001.pdf Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll commissioned by [[AARP]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" |April 24–30, 2024 |1,398 (LV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|April 25–29, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |49%{{efn|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-poll-michigan-pennyslvania-wisconsin/ CBS News/YouGov] | data-sort-value="2024-04-18" |April 19–25, 2024 |1,288 (LV) |± 3.1% |49% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |1% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/PA_ELEC_2024_SPRING_REPORT.pdf Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" |April 15–25, 2024 |417 (RV) |± 6.0% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-2024-pennsylvania-rematch Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-04-18" |April 11–16, 2024 |1,141 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''48%''' |'''48%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/biden-trails-trump-in-6-of-7-key-states-poll-shows-election-2024 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-04-24" |April 8–15, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://independentcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Independent-Center-Target-State-Poll-2024-Pennsylvania.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Independent Center}} | data-sort-value="2024-04-19" |March 29 – April 3, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |18%{{Efn|Independent/Third party candidate with 12%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-pennsylvania-moving-in-more-positive-direction/133348/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-04-04" |March 20–31, 2024 |870 (RV) |± 4.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |38% |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf Wall Street Journal] | data-sort-value="2024-04-02" |March 17–24, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://first-heritage-foundation.s3.amazonaws.com/live_files/2024/04/Echelon-Insights-Survey.pdf Echelon Insights]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by [[The Heritage Foundation]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-04-15" |March 12–19, 2024 |400 (LV) |± 5.5% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24496689-cnn-pennsylvania-poll CNN/SSRS] | data-sort-value="2024-03-22" |March 13–18, 2024 |1,132 (RV) |± 3.8% |'''46%''' |'''46%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-47-biden-43/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|March 10–13, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |10% |- |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |48%{{efn|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''52%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/election-2024-poll-biden-gains-on-trump-in-six-swing-states Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-03-26" |March 8–12, 2024 |807 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''45%''' |'''45%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-pennsylvania-looks-headed-another-tight-race-2024 Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" |March 7–11, 2024 |1,149 (RV) |± 3.0% |47% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Toplines-PAStatewide-Omnibus-March2024-Public.pdf Susquehanna Polling & Research] | data-sort-value="2024-03-25" |February 27 – March 7, 2024 |450 (LV) |± 4.6% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''50%''' |45% |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/biden-age-worries-swing-state-voters-trump-seen-as-dangerous-poll-shows Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-02-29" |February 12–20, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://chismstrategies.com/would-a-taylor-swift-endorsement-help-biden/ Chism Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-02-09" |February 6–8, 2024 |500 (RV) |± 5.0% |32% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |28% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/memo-mccormick-down-to-casey-but-far-from-out/132043/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)] |January 22–25, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/content/files/2024/01/KEYFEB24_TOPLINE-2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-01" |January 17–28, 2024 |507 (RV) |± 5.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''43%''' |42% |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/trump-guilty-verdict-loses-half-of-key-state-voters-in-election-2024 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-01-31" |January 16–21, 2024 |795 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Topllines-PAStatewide-Public-Jan2024.pdf Susquehanna Polling & Research] | data-sort-value="2024-01-23" |January 15–21, 2024 |745 (RV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%''' |39% |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa01102024_pidf24.pdf Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2024-01-04" |January 4–8, 2024 |1,680 (RV) |± 2.4% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''49%''' |46% |5%{{Efn|"Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TpdHyzBA1zWmV6q5UCyv1nM_mKDuNPjRNknla-HVyvE/ The Bullfinch Group] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |December 14–18, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |'''45%''' |'''45%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-NV-PA-NY-CDs-Report.pdf Change Research/Future Majority (D)] | data-sort-value="2024-01-08" |December 3–7, 2023 |(RVs) |– |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/2023-decemberpapresidentialelectionsurvey/ Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |41% |17% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-key-state-voter-polling/december-2023-poll/ Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |November 27 – December 6, 2023 |799 (RV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/trump-leads-biden-with-key-state-voters-on-israel-hamas-war-immigration#xj4y7vzkg Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" |October 30 – November 7, 2023 |805 (RV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/swing-state-2024-polling-biden-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-and-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-leads-trump-in-michigan/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|October 30 – November 4, 2023 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |11% |- |816 (LV) |– |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://archive.today/20231106013743/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-11-5" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-october-2023/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2023-10-26" |October 11–22, 2023 |873 (RV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''44%''' |42% |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-19/trump-leads-biden-in-key-us-states-as-voters-worry-about-economy-poll#xj4y7vzkg Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-10-19" |October 5–10, 2023 |807 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-7-9-october-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-10-15" |October 7–9, 2023 |900 (LV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''43%''' |42% |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-young-voters-hesitant-to-support-biden-but-stick-with-sen-casey/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2023-10-11" |October 1–4, 2023 |430 (RV) |± 4.7% |36% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |19% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa10042023_pthi25.pdf Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2023-06-26" |September 28 – October 2, 2023 |1,725 (RV) |± 2.4% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://savemycountryactionfund.org/2023/09/28/new-polling-biden-leading-trump-in-michigan-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-impeachment-of-biden-unpopular-with-voters/ Public Policy Polling (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund}} | data-sort-value="2023-06-26" |September 25–26, 2023 |673 (RV) |± 3.8% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |45% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23872659/no-labels.pdf Prime Group]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC}} |rowspan="2"| June 14–28, 2023 |500 (RV) |– |'''50%''' |'''50%''' |– |- |500 (RV) |– |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |19%{{efn|[[No Labels]] candidate}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3875/ Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2023-06-26" |June 22–26, 2023 |1,584 (RV) |± 2.5% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.mcclatchydc.com/article274385065.html Public Opinion Strategies (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-04-13" |April 11–13, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''46%''' |42% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-college-poll-april-2023/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2023-04-07" |March 27 – April 7, 2023 |643 (RV) |± 4.9% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''36%''' |35% |29% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.pennlive.com/elections/2023/03/early-2024-poll-shows-desantis-leading-trump-among-pa-republican-voters.html Susquehanna Polling & Research] | data-sort-value="2023-02-26" |February 19–26, 2023 |800 (RV) |± 3.2% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |41% |11% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.pollsmartmr.com/latest-polls-1/pennsylvania-poll-oz-leads-fetterman Targoz Market Research] | data-sort-value="2022-11-06" |November 2–6, 2022 |631 (LV) |± 3.8% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''52%''' |2% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-oz-and-fetterman-in-two-point-race-half-of-voters-say-senate-debate-worsened-their-opinion-of-fetterman/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2022-10-31" |October 28–31, 2022 |1,000 (LV) |± 3.0% |'''44%''' |'''44%''' |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fettermans-lead-shrinks-in-us-senate-race-shapiros-lead-expands-for-governors-seat/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2022-09-26" |September 23–26, 2022 |1,000 (LV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://netchoice.org/new-national-poll-89-of-americans-say-congress-should-focus-on-addressing-inflation-not-breaking-up-tech/ Echelon Insights] | data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 31 – September 7, 2022 |828 (LV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |43% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fetterman-holds-four-point-lead-over-oz-for-us-senate-shapiro-leads-mastriano-by-three/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2022-08-23" |August 22–23, 2022 |1,034 (LV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |11% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_07282022.pdf PEM Management Corporation (R)]{{efn-ua|Poll conducted for the [[John Bolton#John Bolton Super PAC|John Bolton Super PAC]]|name="BoltonPAC"}} | data-sort-value="2022-07-24" |July 22–24, 2022 |300 (LV) |± 5.7% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://blueprintpolling.com/2022/07/26/democratic-nominees-for-pa-governor-and-senate-enjoy-early-lead-while-biden-fades/ Blueprint Polling (D)] | data-sort-value="2022-07-21" |July 19–21, 2022 |712 (LV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |41% |17% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/BP-Polling-PA-Survey.pdf Blueprint Polling (D)] | data-sort-value="2022-02-16" |February 15–16, 2022 |635 (LV) |± 3.9% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |40% |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017d-49fd-dddc-a77f-4dff81830000 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)]{{efn-ua|name=TrumpCampaign|Poll sponsored by [[Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign|Trump's campaign]]}} | data-sort-value="2021-11-16" |November 11–16, 2021 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |4% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Cornel<br/>West<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=DNext}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |4% |1% |1% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/toplines_2_heartland_battleground_july_2024_all_race_data Rasmussen Reports (R)]{{efn-ua|name=heartland}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 5–12, 2024 |1,041 (LV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |6% |1% |2% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20240712_state_poll_results.pdf YouGov]{{Efn-ua|name=times|Poll conducted for ''[[The Times]]'', [[Stanford University]], [[Arizona State University]], and [[Yale University]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-15" |July 4–12, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.4% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |3% |1% |1% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |8% |0% |2% |11% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |7% |0% |2% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-06/biden-narrows-trump-s-election-lead-in-key-states-after-debate-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-07-06" |July 1–5, 2024 |794 (RV) |± 3.0% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |1% |1% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cygn.al/pennsylvania-poll-first-fielded-straddling-the-debate-trump-with-strong-lead-and-mccormick-within-striking-distance-of-casey/ Cygnal (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" |June 27–28, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |9% |2% |2% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" |June 13–18, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |5% |0% |1% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-elections-in-pennsylvania/ Marist College] | data-sort-value="2024-06-12" |June 3–6, 2024 |1,181 (RV) |± 3.6% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |3% |1% |1% |3%{{Efn|Chase Oliver (L) with >1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://vaportechnology.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/PA-Banners.pdf KAConsulting (R)]{{efn-ua|name=VTA}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" |May 15–19, 2024 |600 (RV) |– |39% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |9% |1% |3% |7%{{efn|Lars Mapstead with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240522_prime_CSOR.pdf Prime Group]{{Efn-ua|name=citizens}} | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 9–16, 2024 |487 (RV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |42% |9% |2% |2% |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/violence-around-2024-election-feared-by-half-of-swing-state-voters-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 7–13, 2024 |812 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |7% |2% |1% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)] | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" |May 6–13, 2024 |730 (LV) |± 3.6% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |7% |2% |2% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer] |rowspan="2"|April 28 – May 9, 2024 |1,023 (RV) |± 3.6% |36% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |10% |0% |1% |13%{{efn|name=Lars0|Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%}} |- |1,023 (LV) |± 3.6% |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |9% |0% |1% |12%{{efn|name=Lars0}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-04-30" |April 25–29, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |6% |1% |1% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-2024-pennsylvania-rematch Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-04-18" |April 11–16, 2024 |1,141 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |8% |1% |2% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/biden-trails-trump-in-6-of-7-key-states-poll-shows-election-2024 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-04-24" |April 8–15, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |8% |0% |1% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf Wall Street Journal] | data-sort-value="2024-04-02" |March 17–24, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |7% |3% |1% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-47-biden-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-03-14" |March 10–13, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |5% |1% |1% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/election-2024-poll-biden-gains-on-trump-in-six-swing-states Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-03-26" |March 8–12, 2024 |807 (RV) |± 3.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |0% |1% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-pennsylvania-looks-headed-another-tight-race-2024 Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" |March 7–11, 2024 |1,149 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''42%''' |'''42%''' |9% |2% |2% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/biden-age-worries-swing-state-voters-trump-seen-as-dangerous-poll-shows Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-02-29" |February 12–20, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |36% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |8% |1% |1% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |8% |2% |1% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/01/2401055_Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-4_Crosstabs_All-States-compressed-1.pdf Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-01-31" |January 16–21, 2024 |795 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |7% |1% |1% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa01102024_pidf24.pdf Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |January 4–8, 2023 |1,680 (RV) |± 2.4% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''41%''' |39% |11% |2% |4% |3%{{Efn|"Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2023/12/231206-Morning-Consult-Bloomberg-2024-Election-Swing-State-Polling.pdf#page=126 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |November 27 – December 6, 2023 |799 (RV) |± 3.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''39%''' |9% |1% |1% |12% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |4% |2% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-2-4-may-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-05-13" |May 2–4, 2024 |635 (LV) |– |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |7% |0% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-pennsylvania-moving-in-more-positive-direction/133348/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-04-04" |March 20–31, 2024 |870 (RV) |± 4.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |40% |9% |3% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-14-17-march-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-03-25" |March 14–17, 2024 |775 (LV) |– |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |1% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/content/files/2024/01/KEYFEB24_TOPLINE-2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-01" |January 17–28, 2024 |494 (RV) |± 5.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |37% |8% |2% |11% |- |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240719_PA_Civiqs.pdf Civiqs]{{Efn-ua|name=rising|Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 13–16, 2024 |536 (RV) |± 4.7% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |6% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240708_Swing_1983Labs.pdf 1983 Labs] | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" |June 28–30, 2024 |741 (LV) |± 3.6% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |3% |10%{{efn|Chase Oliver (L) with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/mainstreet_PA_June_2024_Public.pdf Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University] |rowspan="2"|May 30–31, 2024 |1,012 (RV) |± 3.1% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''41%''' |39% |8% |12% |- |923 (LV) |± 3.1% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''43%''' |42% |7% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/PA_ELEC_2024_SPRING_REPORT.pdf Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" |April 15–25, 2024 |417 (RV) |± 6.0% |'''35%''' |'''35%''' |18% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Common-Ground-in-the-Commonwealth-Q1-2024-Survey-Analysis-Updated.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=commonwealth|Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation}} | data-sort-value="2024-04-9" |March 22–26, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''44%''' |41% |7% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-28-30-december-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-01-08" |December 28–30, 2023 |1,069 (LV) |– |39% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |9% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-29-november-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-12-05" |November 27–29, 2023 |887 (LV) |– |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/07/us/politics/rfk-jr-trump-biden-poll.html/ New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-10-15" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (LV) |± 4.6 |'''35%''' |'''35%''' |23% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-7-9-october-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-10-15" |October 7–9, 2023 |900 (LV) |– |'''39%''' |'''39%''' |9% |13% |- |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Cornel<br/>West<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24496689-cnn-pennsylvania-poll CNN/SSRS] | data-sort-value="2024-03-22" |March 13–18, 2024 |1,132 (RV) |± 3.8% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |16% |4% |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2023/11/231105-Morning-Consult-Bloomberg-2024-Election-Survey-All-States-Toplines.pdf#page=109 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" |October 30 – November 7, 2023 |805 (RV) |± 3.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |8% |1% |12% |- |} ;Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Gavin<br/>Newsom<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF|Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |33% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |19% |} ;Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Gretchen<br/>Whitmer<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |48% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |8% |} ;JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | JB<br/>Pritzker<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |13% |} ;Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Josh<br/>Shapiro<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''54%''' |44% |2% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF|Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%''' |46% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/PA_Elec_Dec23_Report_FINAL.pdf Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |37% |15% |} ;Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Josh<br/>Shapiro<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%''' |43% |3% |1% |6% |} ;Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Pete<br/>Buttigieg<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |9% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley <!-- Leave graph hidden until there is a primary victor --><!-- {{Graph:Chart | width=750 | height=300 | xAxisTitle= | xAxisMax=1730764800000 | yAxisTitle=%support | xAxisAngle = -40 | legend=Candidate | interpolate = bundle | size = 1.5 | xType = date | y1Title=Biden | y2Title=Haley | y3Title=Other/Undecided | type=line |xGrid= |yGrid= | x= 2023/04/20 | y1= 45 | y2= 45 | y3= 10 | colors = #3333FF, #E81B23, #DDDDDD, | showSymbols = 0.8,0.8,0.8 | symbolsShape = circle }}--> {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Nikki<br/>Haley<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/2023-decemberpapresidentialelectionsurvey/ Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |33% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''38%''' |29% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/06/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-likely-electorate.html New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-11-05" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |39% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |12% |- |} ;Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Nikki<br/>Haley<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other ! class="unsortable" | Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-29-november-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-12-05" |November 27–29, 2023 |887 (LV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''36%''' |26% |18% |7% |13% |- |} <!-- Leave graph hidden until there is a primary victor --><!-- {{Graph:Chart | width=750 | height=300 | xAxisTitle= | xAxisMax=1730764800000 | yAxisTitle=%support | xAxisAngle = -40 | legend=Candidate | interpolate = bundle | size = 1.5 | xType = date | y1Title=Biden | y2Title=Trump | y3Title=Kennedy Jr | y4Title=Other/Undecided | type=line |xGrid= |yGrid= | x= 2021/11/16, 2022/02/16, 2022/07/21, 2022/07/24, 2022/08/23, 2022/09/07, 2022/09/26, 2022/10/31, 2022/11/06, 2023/02/26, 2023/04/07, 2023/04/13, 2023/06/26, 2023/09/26, 2023/10/2, 2023/10/04, 2023/10/09, 2023/10/10, 2023/10/23, 2023/11/03, 2023/11/04, 2023/11/09 | y1= 45, 45, 42, 42, 42, 48, 45, 44, 46, 48, 36, 46, 46, 48, 45, 36, 43, 39, 44, 44, 45, 44 | y2= 51, 40, 41, 44, 47, 43, 46, 44, 52, 41, 35, 42, 47, 45, 47, 45, 42, 39, 42, 48, 49, 47 | y3= 4, 15, 17, 14, 11, 9, 9, 12, 2, 11, 29, 12, 7, 19, 15, 13, 14, 8, 6, 9 | colors = #3333FF, #E81B23, #DDDDDD, | showSymbols = 0.8,0.8,0.8 | symbolsShape = circle }}--> ;Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Ron<br/>DeSantis<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/2023-decemberpapresidentialelectionsurvey/ Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''41%''' |39% |20% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/06/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-likely-electorate.html New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-11-05" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1656328949096497155 Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" |May 2–8, 2023 |700 (LV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |39% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.mcclatchydc.com/article274385065.html Public Opinion Strategies (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-04-13" |April 11–13, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |13% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://netchoice.org/new-national-poll-89-of-americans-say-congress-should-focus-on-addressing-inflation-not-breaking-up-tech/ Echelon Insights] | data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 31 – September 7, 2022 |828 (LV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''46%''' |42% |12% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Ron<br/>DeSantis<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other ! class="unsortable" | Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-29-november-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-12-05" |November 27–29, 2023 |887 (LV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''37%''' |34% |13% |3% |12% |- |} ;Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Robert F.<br/>Kennedy Jr.<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Ron<br/>DeSantis<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1656328949096497155 Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" |May 2–8, 2023 |700 (LV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |38% |20% |} {{hidden end}} === Canceled debate === {{main|2024 United States presidential debates}} In November 2023, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced it would host its sole vice presidential debate at [[Lafayette College]] in [[Easton, Pennsylvania|Easton]] on September 25, 2024.<ref name=ScheduleQual>{{Cite web |last=Cohen |first=Ethan |date=November 20, 2023 |title=Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates |url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/politics/presidential-debate-dates/index.html |access-date=November 21, 2023 |website=CNN |language=en |archive-date=November 20, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231120230006/https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/politics/presidential-debate-dates/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref> However, in May 2024, both the Biden and Trump campaigns declined to participate in CPD-sponsored debates due to conflicts with the commission regarding the [[2020 United States presidential debates|2020 debates]]. An alternative set of dates were scheduled by the campaigns themselves, effectively canceling the original schedule.<ref name=APMay15>{{cite news|url=https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-presidential-debates-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8|title=Biden and Trump, trading barbs, agree to 2 presidential debates, in June and September|last1=Boak|first1=Josh|last2=Miller|first2=Zeke|last3=Colvin|first3=Jill|work=[[Associated Press]]|date=May 15, 2024|accessdate=May 17, 2024|archive-date=May 16, 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240516231754/https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-presidential-debates-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8|url-status=live}}</ref> === Trump rally shooting === {{main|Attempted assassination of Donald Trump}} On July 13, 2024, Trump was injured in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of [[Butler, Pennsylvania]]. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by [[United States Secret Service|Secret Service]] agents until the shooter was killed by members of the [[Secret Service Counter Assault Team|Counter Assault Team]]. One rally-goer died and two others were critically injured.<ref>{{cite news |title=Trump injured in shooting at Pennsylvania rally |first=Jeremy |last=Herb |display-authors=etal |work=[[CNN]] |date=July 13, 2024 |access-date=July 13, 2024 |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/13/politics/trump-injured-pennsylvania-rally/index.html}}</ref> ==See also== * [[United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania]] * [[2024 United States presidential election]] * [[2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries]] * [[2024 Republican Party presidential primaries]] * [[2024 United States elections]] ==Notes== {{notelist|refs=<ref name="key">Key:<br/>A – all adults<br/>RV – registered voters<br/>LV – likely voters<br/>V – unclear</ref>}} ;Partisan clients {{notelist-ua}} ==References== {{Reflist|30em}} <!--List lower-alpha grouped templates--> {{2024 United States elections}} {{State results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election}} <!-- Per [[WP:BIDIRECTIONAL]], please DO NOT ADD template "State of XXXXX" here --> [[Category:2024 United States presidential election by state|Pennsylvania]] [[Category:United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania|2024]] [[Category:2024 Pennsylvania elections|Presidential]]'
New page wikitext, after the edit (new_wikitext)'{{Short description|none}} <!-- "none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see [[WP:SDNONE]] --> {{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}} {{main|2024 United States presidential election}} {{row hover highlight}} {{Infobox election | election_name = 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania | country = Pennsylvania | type = Presidential | ongoing = yes | previous_election = 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania | previous_year = 2020 | election_date = November 5, 2024 | next_election = 2028 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania | next_year = ''2028'' | image1 = Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg | nominee1 = [[Kamala Harris]]<br>(presumptive) | party1 = Democratic Party (United States) | home_state1 = [[California]] | running_mate1 = [[2024 Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection|''TBD'']] | image2 = Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg | nominee2 = [[Donald Trump]] | party2 = Republican Party (United States) | home_state2 = [[Florida]] | running_mate2 = [[JD Vance]] | map_image = | map_size = 300px | map_caption = County results<!-- (replace party names with candidates after election and remove unused shades; colors from [[WP:USALEGEND]]) {{col-start}} {{col-2}} '''Democratic''' {{legend|#D3E7FF|30–40%}} {{legend|#B9D7FF|40–50%}} {{legend|#86B6F2|50–60%}} {{legend|#4389E3|60–70%}} {{legend|#1666CB|70–80%}} {{legend|#0645B4|80–90%}} {{legend|#002B84|>90%}} {{col-2}} '''Republican''' {{legend|#FFCCD0|30–40%}} {{legend|#F2B3BE|40–50%}} {{legend|#E27F90|50–60%}} {{legend|#CC2F4A|60–70%}} {{legend|#D40000|70–80%}} {{legend|#AA0000|80–90%}} {{legend|#800000|>90%}} {{col-end}} --> | title = President | before_election = [[Joe Biden]] | before_party = Democratic Party (United States) | after_election = | after_party = | image_size = 200x200px }} {{Elections in Pennsylvania sidebar}} The '''2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania''' is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the [[2024 United States elections]] in which all 50 states plus the [[Washington, D.C.|District of Columbia]] will participate. [[Pennsylvania]] voters will choose electors to represent them in the [[United States Electoral College|Electoral College]] via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following [[United States congressional apportionment|reapportionment]] due to the [[2020 United States census]] in which the state lost a seat.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Wang |first1=Hansi |last2=Jin |first2=Connie |last3=Levitt |first3=Zach |title=Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats |url=https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |publisher=[[NPR]] |access-date=August 20, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |date=April 26, 2021 |url-status=live}}</ref> A [[blue state|purple to slightly blue]] [[Northeastern United States|Northeastern]] state partly within the [[Rust Belt]], Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since [[1972 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|1972]], when [[1972 United States presidential election|49-state landslide]] winner [[Richard Nixon]] won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was [[Ronald Reagan]]. Between [[1992 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|1992]] and [[2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|2012]], Pennsylvania voted Democrat in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from [[Barack Obama]]'s 10.31% victory in [[2008 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|2008]]. In [[2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|2016]], Republican [[Donald Trump]] (whose home state was neighboring [[New York State|New York]] in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the [[Rust Belt]] and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since [[1988 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|1988]], but [[2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|four years later]] lost the state to Democrat [[Joe Biden]] — a native Pennsylvanian representing neighboring [[Delaware]] — by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial [[swing state]] in 2024, with most major news organizations marking it as a tossup.<ref>{{Cite web |title=270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map |url=https://www.270towin.com/ |access-date=2024-03-09 |website=270toWin.com}}</ref> In July 2024, [[Donald Trump]] was the target of an [[Attempted assassination of Donald Trump|assassination attempt]] by [[Thomas Matthew Crooks]] while giving a speech near [[Butler, Pennsylvania]]. ==Primary elections== === Democratic primary === {{main|2024 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary}} The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024. {{2024PADem}} === Republican primary === {{main|2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary}} The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024. {{2024PARep}} ==General election== ===Predictions=== {| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" !Source !Ranking !As of |- | align=left | [[The Cook Political Report]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings |title=2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings |date=December 19, 2023 |website=cookpolitical.com |publisher=[[Cook Political Report]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 9, 2024 |- | align=left | [[Inside Elections]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://insideelections.com/ratings/president |title=Presidential Ratings |date=April 26, 2023 |website=insideelections.com |publisher=[[Inside Elections]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |May 8, 2024 |- | align=left | [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]]<ref name="Sabato's Crystal Ball">{{cite web |date=June 29, 2023|access-date=June 10, 2024 |title=2024 Electoral College ratings |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-president/ |publisher=[[Sabato's Crystal Ball]]}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 3, 2024 |- | align=left | [[Decision Desk HQ]]/[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://elections2024.thehill.com/predictions/president |title=2024 presidential predictions |date=December 14, 2023 |website=elections2024.thehill.com/ |publisher=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | Forecast suspended |July 18, 2024 |- | align=left | [[CNalysis]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/president |title=2024 Presidential Forecast |date=December 30, 2023 |website=projects.cnalysis.com/ |publisher=[[CNalysis]] |access-date=January 11, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 24, 2024 |- | align=left | [[CNN]]<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map |title=Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 |publisher=[[CNN]] |access-date=January 14, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |July 24, 2024 |- | align=left | [[The Economist]]<ref>{{cite web |title=Trump v Biden: The Economist’s presidential election prediction model |url=https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president |website=[[The Economist]] |access-date=June 12, 2024 |language=en}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Lean|R|flip}} |July 21, 2024 |- | align="left" |[[FiveThirtyEight|538]]<ref>{{cite web |last1=Morris |first1=G. Elliott |title=2024 Election Forecast |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ |website=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=June 11, 2024 |language=en |date=June 11, 2024}}</ref> | Forecast suspended | July 21, 2024 |- | align="left" |[[RealClearPolitics|RCP]]<ref>{{cite web|title=2024 RCP Electoral College Map |url=https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college |website=RealClearPolitics |access-date=June 26, 2024 |language=en |date=June 26, 2024}}</ref> | {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} | June 26, 2024 |} ===Polling=== ;Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Kamala<br/>Harris<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/2024/07/26/swing-state-poll-pa-voters/ The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=commonwealth}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 23–25, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |47% |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''49%''' |'''49%''' |2% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|July 22–23, 2024 |850 (RV) |± 3.3% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |6% |- |850 (RV) |± 3.3% |49%{{efn|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://cdn.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2024/07/PA-July-Toplines.pdf North Star Opinion Research]{{Efn-ua|name=AMG|Poll sponsored by American Greatness}} | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" |July 20–23, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BTopd55Mr-uiOfZ_0booFKcstbNry-Ku/view SoCal Research]{{efn-ua|name=onpoint|Poll sponsored by On Point Politics}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-21" |July 20–21, 2024 |500 (LV) |± 4.4% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://insideradvantage.com/three-more-battleground-polls-trump-leads-in-pa-nv-az-no-post-shooting-bump-but-large-enthusiasm-gap-harris-trails-trump/ InsiderAdvantage (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |13% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF|Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |6% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |47% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/violence-around-2024-election-feared-by-half-of-swing-state-voters-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 7–13, 2024 |812 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |11% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://archive.today/20231106013743/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |600 (LV) |± 4.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |} ;Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Kamala<br/>Harris<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Cornel<br/>West<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Chase<br/>Oliver<br/>{{nobold|Libertarian}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/2024/07/26/swing-state-poll-pa-voters/ The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=commonwealth}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 23–25, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.5% |'''44%''' |'''44%''' |6% |– |1% |1% |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-22-24-july-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |851 (LV) |– |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |5% |– |0% |0% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |43% |7% |1% |1% |– |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" |July 22–23, 2024 |850 (RV) |± 3.3% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |3% |1% |1% |0% |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |4% |– |2% |– |6% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |7% |0% |3% |– |8% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |6% |0% |2% |– |7% |} ;Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Kamala<br/>Harris<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240719_PA_Civiqs.pdf Civiqs]{{Efn-ua|name=rising}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 13–16, 2024 |536 (RV) |± 4.7% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |5% |5% |} {{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}} <!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = --> ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BTopd55Mr-uiOfZ_0booFKcstbNry-Ku/view SoCal Research]{{efn-ua|name=onpoint}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-21" |July 20–21, 2024 |500 (LV) |± 4.4% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean|Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://insideradvantage.com/three-more-battleground-polls-trump-leads-in-pa-nv-az-no-post-shooting-bump-but-large-enthusiasm-gap-harris-trails-trump/ InsiderAdvantage (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=DNext}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/toplines_2_heartland_battleground_july_2024_all_race_data Rasmussen Reports (R)]{{efn-ua|name=heartland|Poll sponsored by [[The Heartland Institute]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 5–12, 2024 |1,041 (LV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-06/biden-narrows-trump-s-election-lead-in-key-states-after-debate-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-07-06" |July 1–5, 2024 |794 (RV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://nypost.com/2024/07/08/us-news/biden-lags-behind-in-all-of-the-key-battleground-states-by-4-point-average-new-poll/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=DNext|Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" |June 30 – July 2, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.dailywire.com/news/exclusive-poll-shows-bidens-election-problems-widespread-among-democrats-in-key-states Remington Research Group (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" |June 29 – July 1, 2024 |673 (LV) |± 4.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cygn.al/pennsylvania-poll-first-fielded-straddling-the-debate-trump-with-strong-lead-and-mccormick-within-striking-distance-of-casey/ Cygnal (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" |June 27–28, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Common-Ground-Q2-2024-toplines.pdf Commonwealth Foundation] | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" |June 14–19, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.46% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |44% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|June 13–18, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |49%{{efn|With voters who lean towards a given candidate|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/mainstreet_PA_June_2024_Public.pdf Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University] |rowspan="2"|May 30–31, 2024 |1,012 (RV) |± 3.1% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |12% |- |923 (LV) |± 3.1% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://vaportechnology.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/PA-Banners.pdf KAConsulting (R)]{{efn-ua|name=VTA|Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" |May 15–19, 2024 |600 (RV) |– |'''44%''' |'''44%''' |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240522_prime_CSOR.pdf Prime Group]{{Efn-ua|name=citizens|Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump}} | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 9–16, 2024 |487 (RV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''51%''' |49% |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/violence-around-2024-election-feared-by-half-of-swing-state-voters-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 7–13, 2024 |812 (RV) |± 3.0% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)] | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" |May 6–13, 2024 |730 (LV) |± 3.6% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer] |rowspan="2"|April 28 – May 9, 2024 |1,023 (RV) |± 3.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |1,023 (LV) |± 3.6% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/pennsylvania-older-voter-survey-2024-report.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.001.pdf Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll commissioned by [[AARP]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" |April 24–30, 2024 |1,398 (LV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|April 25–29, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |49%{{efn|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-poll-michigan-pennyslvania-wisconsin/ CBS News/YouGov] | data-sort-value="2024-04-18" |April 19–25, 2024 |1,288 (LV) |± 3.1% |49% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |1% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/PA_ELEC_2024_SPRING_REPORT.pdf Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" |April 15–25, 2024 |417 (RV) |± 6.0% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-2024-pennsylvania-rematch Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-04-18" |April 11–16, 2024 |1,141 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''48%''' |'''48%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/biden-trails-trump-in-6-of-7-key-states-poll-shows-election-2024 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-04-24" |April 8–15, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://independentcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Independent-Center-Target-State-Poll-2024-Pennsylvania.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Independent Center}} | data-sort-value="2024-04-19" |March 29 – April 3, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |18%{{Efn|Independent/Third party candidate with 12%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-pennsylvania-moving-in-more-positive-direction/133348/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-04-04" |March 20–31, 2024 |870 (RV) |± 4.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |38% |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf Wall Street Journal] | data-sort-value="2024-04-02" |March 17–24, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://first-heritage-foundation.s3.amazonaws.com/live_files/2024/04/Echelon-Insights-Survey.pdf Echelon Insights]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by [[The Heritage Foundation]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-04-15" |March 12–19, 2024 |400 (LV) |± 5.5% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24496689-cnn-pennsylvania-poll CNN/SSRS] | data-sort-value="2024-03-22" |March 13–18, 2024 |1,132 (RV) |± 3.8% |'''46%''' |'''46%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-47-biden-43/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|March 10–13, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |10% |- |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |48%{{efn|name="lean"}} |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''52%''' |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/election-2024-poll-biden-gains-on-trump-in-six-swing-states Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-03-26" |March 8–12, 2024 |807 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''45%''' |'''45%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-pennsylvania-looks-headed-another-tight-race-2024 Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" |March 7–11, 2024 |1,149 (RV) |± 3.0% |47% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Toplines-PAStatewide-Omnibus-March2024-Public.pdf Susquehanna Polling & Research] | data-sort-value="2024-03-25" |February 27 – March 7, 2024 |450 (LV) |± 4.6% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''50%''' |45% |5% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/biden-age-worries-swing-state-voters-trump-seen-as-dangerous-poll-shows Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-02-29" |February 12–20, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://chismstrategies.com/would-a-taylor-swift-endorsement-help-biden/ Chism Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-02-09" |February 6–8, 2024 |500 (RV) |± 5.0% |32% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |28% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/memo-mccormick-down-to-casey-but-far-from-out/132043/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)] |January 22–25, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/content/files/2024/01/KEYFEB24_TOPLINE-2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-01" |January 17–28, 2024 |507 (RV) |± 5.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''43%''' |42% |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/trump-guilty-verdict-loses-half-of-key-state-voters-in-election-2024 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-01-31" |January 16–21, 2024 |795 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Topllines-PAStatewide-Public-Jan2024.pdf Susquehanna Polling & Research] | data-sort-value="2024-01-23" |January 15–21, 2024 |745 (RV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%''' |39% |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa01102024_pidf24.pdf Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2024-01-04" |January 4–8, 2024 |1,680 (RV) |± 2.4% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''49%''' |46% |5%{{Efn|"Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TpdHyzBA1zWmV6q5UCyv1nM_mKDuNPjRNknla-HVyvE/ The Bullfinch Group] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |December 14–18, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |'''45%''' |'''45%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-NV-PA-NY-CDs-Report.pdf Change Research/Future Majority (D)] | data-sort-value="2024-01-08" |December 3–7, 2023 |(RVs) |– |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/2023-decemberpapresidentialelectionsurvey/ Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |41% |17% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-key-state-voter-polling/december-2023-poll/ Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |November 27 – December 6, 2023 |799 (RV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/trump-leads-biden-with-key-state-voters-on-israel-hamas-war-immigration#xj4y7vzkg Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" |October 30 – November 7, 2023 |805 (RV) |± 3.0% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/swing-state-2024-polling-biden-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-and-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-leads-trump-in-michigan/ Emerson College] |rowspan="2"|October 30 – November 4, 2023 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |11% |- |816 (LV) |– |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://archive.today/20231106013743/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-11-5" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |44% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-october-2023/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2023-10-26" |October 11–22, 2023 |873 (RV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''44%''' |42% |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-19/trump-leads-biden-in-key-us-states-as-voters-worry-about-economy-poll#xj4y7vzkg Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-10-19" |October 5–10, 2023 |807 (RV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-7-9-october-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-10-15" |October 7–9, 2023 |900 (LV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''43%''' |42% |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-young-voters-hesitant-to-support-biden-but-stick-with-sen-casey/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2023-10-11" |October 1–4, 2023 |430 (RV) |± 4.7% |36% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |19% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa10042023_pthi25.pdf Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2023-06-26" |September 28 – October 2, 2023 |1,725 (RV) |± 2.4% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://savemycountryactionfund.org/2023/09/28/new-polling-biden-leading-trump-in-michigan-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-impeachment-of-biden-unpopular-with-voters/ Public Policy Polling (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund}} | data-sort-value="2023-06-26" |September 25–26, 2023 |673 (RV) |± 3.8% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |45% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23872659/no-labels.pdf Prime Group]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC}} |rowspan="2"| June 14–28, 2023 |500 (RV) |– |'''50%''' |'''50%''' |– |- |500 (RV) |– |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |19%{{efn|[[No Labels]] candidate}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3875/ Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2023-06-26" |June 22–26, 2023 |1,584 (RV) |± 2.5% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.mcclatchydc.com/article274385065.html Public Opinion Strategies (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-04-13" |April 11–13, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''46%''' |42% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-college-poll-april-2023/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2023-04-07" |March 27 – April 7, 2023 |643 (RV) |± 4.9% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''36%''' |35% |29% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.pennlive.com/elections/2023/03/early-2024-poll-shows-desantis-leading-trump-among-pa-republican-voters.html Susquehanna Polling & Research] | data-sort-value="2023-02-26" |February 19–26, 2023 |800 (RV) |± 3.2% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |41% |11% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.pollsmartmr.com/latest-polls-1/pennsylvania-poll-oz-leads-fetterman Targoz Market Research] | data-sort-value="2022-11-06" |November 2–6, 2022 |631 (LV) |± 3.8% |46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''52%''' |2% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-oz-and-fetterman-in-two-point-race-half-of-voters-say-senate-debate-worsened-their-opinion-of-fetterman/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2022-10-31" |October 28–31, 2022 |1,000 (LV) |± 3.0% |'''44%''' |'''44%''' |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fettermans-lead-shrinks-in-us-senate-race-shapiros-lead-expands-for-governors-seat/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2022-09-26" |September 23–26, 2022 |1,000 (LV) |± 3.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://netchoice.org/new-national-poll-89-of-americans-say-congress-should-focus-on-addressing-inflation-not-breaking-up-tech/ Echelon Insights] | data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 31 – September 7, 2022 |828 (LV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |43% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fetterman-holds-four-point-lead-over-oz-for-us-senate-shapiro-leads-mastriano-by-three/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2022-08-23" |August 22–23, 2022 |1,034 (LV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |11% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_07282022.pdf PEM Management Corporation (R)]{{efn-ua|Poll conducted for the [[John Bolton#John Bolton Super PAC|John Bolton Super PAC]]|name="BoltonPAC"}} | data-sort-value="2022-07-24" |July 22–24, 2022 |300 (LV) |± 5.7% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |14% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://blueprintpolling.com/2022/07/26/democratic-nominees-for-pa-governor-and-senate-enjoy-early-lead-while-biden-fades/ Blueprint Polling (D)] | data-sort-value="2022-07-21" |July 19–21, 2022 |712 (LV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |41% |17% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/BP-Polling-PA-Survey.pdf Blueprint Polling (D)] | data-sort-value="2022-02-16" |February 15–16, 2022 |635 (LV) |± 3.9% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |40% |15% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017d-49fd-dddc-a77f-4dff81830000 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)]{{efn-ua|name=TrumpCampaign|Poll sponsored by [[Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign|Trump's campaign]]}} | data-sort-value="2021-11-16" |November 11–16, 2021 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |4% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Cornel<br/>West<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=DNext}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |4% |1% |1% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/toplines_2_heartland_battleground_july_2024_all_race_data Rasmussen Reports (R)]{{efn-ua|name=heartland}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 5–12, 2024 |1,041 (LV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |6% |1% |2% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20240712_state_poll_results.pdf YouGov]{{Efn-ua|name=times|Poll conducted for ''[[The Times]]'', [[Stanford University]], [[Arizona State University]], and [[Yale University]]}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-15" |July 4–12, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.4% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |3% |1% |1% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/us/politics/pennsylvania-virginia-polls-biden-trump.html New York Times/Siena College] |rowspan="2"|July 9–11, 2024 |872 (RV) |± 3.7% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |8% |0% |2% |11% |- |872 (LV) |± 3.7% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |7% |0% |2% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-06/biden-narrows-trump-s-election-lead-in-key-states-after-debate-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-07-06" |July 1–5, 2024 |794 (RV) |± 3.0% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |1% |1% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cygn.al/pennsylvania-poll-first-fielded-straddling-the-debate-trump-with-strong-lead-and-mccormick-within-striking-distance-of-casey/ Cygnal (R)] | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" |June 27–28, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |9% |2% |2% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" |June 13–18, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |5% |0% |1% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-elections-in-pennsylvania/ Marist College] | data-sort-value="2024-06-12" |June 3–6, 2024 |1,181 (RV) |± 3.6% |45% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |3% |1% |1% |3%{{Efn|Chase Oliver (L) with >1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://vaportechnology.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/PA-Banners.pdf KAConsulting (R)]{{efn-ua|name=VTA}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" |May 15–19, 2024 |600 (RV) |– |39% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |9% |1% |3% |7%{{efn|Lars Mapstead with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240522_prime_CSOR.pdf Prime Group]{{Efn-ua|name=citizens}} | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 9–16, 2024 |487 (RV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%''' |42% |9% |2% |2% |– |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/violence-around-2024-election-feared-by-half-of-swing-state-voters-poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 7–13, 2024 |812 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |7% |2% |1% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)] | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" |May 6–13, 2024 |730 (LV) |± 3.6% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |7% |2% |2% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer] |rowspan="2"|April 28 – May 9, 2024 |1,023 (RV) |± 3.6% |36% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |10% |0% |1% |13%{{efn|name=Lars0|Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%}} |- |1,023 (LV) |± 3.6% |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |9% |0% |1% |12%{{efn|name=Lars0}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-04-30" |April 25–29, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |6% |1% |1% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-2024-pennsylvania-rematch Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-04-18" |April 11–16, 2024 |1,141 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |8% |1% |2% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/biden-trails-trump-in-6-of-7-key-states-poll-shows-election-2024 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-04-24" |April 8–15, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |8% |0% |1% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf Wall Street Journal] | data-sort-value="2024-04-02" |March 17–24, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |7% |3% |1% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-47-biden-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-03-14" |March 10–13, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |5% |1% |1% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/election-2024-poll-biden-gains-on-trump-in-six-swing-states Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-03-26" |March 8–12, 2024 |807 (RV) |± 3.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |0% |1% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-pennsylvania-looks-headed-another-tight-race-2024 Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" |March 7–11, 2024 |1,149 (RV) |± 3.0% |'''42%''' |'''42%''' |9% |2% |2% |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/biden-age-worries-swing-state-voters-trump-seen-as-dangerous-poll-shows Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-02-29" |February 12–20, 2024 |803 (RV) |± 3.0% |36% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |8% |1% |1% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''42%''' |8% |2% |1% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/01/2401055_Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-4_Crosstabs_All-States-compressed-1.pdf Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2024-01-31" |January 16–21, 2024 |795 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |7% |1% |1% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa01102024_pidf24.pdf Quinnipiac University] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |January 4–8, 2023 |1,680 (RV) |± 2.4% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''41%''' |39% |11% |2% |4% |3%{{Efn|"Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2023/12/231206-Morning-Consult-Bloomberg-2024-Election-Swing-State-Polling.pdf#page=126 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |November 27 – December 6, 2023 |799 (RV) |± 3.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''39%''' |9% |1% |1% |12% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |4% |2% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-2-4-may-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-05-13" |May 2–4, 2024 |635 (LV) |– |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''43%''' |7% |0% |9% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-pennsylvania-moving-in-more-positive-direction/133348/ Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-04-04" |March 20–31, 2024 |870 (RV) |± 4.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |40% |9% |3% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-14-17-march-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-03-25" |March 14–17, 2024 |775 (LV) |– |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |1% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.fandmpoll.org/content/files/2024/01/KEYFEB24_TOPLINE-2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-01" |January 17–28, 2024 |494 (RV) |± 5.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |37% |8% |2% |11% |- |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240719_PA_Civiqs.pdf Civiqs]{{Efn-ua|name=rising|Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 13–16, 2024 |536 (RV) |± 4.7% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |6% |6% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240708_Swing_1983Labs.pdf 1983 Labs] | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" |June 28–30, 2024 |741 (LV) |± 3.6% |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |3% |10%{{efn|Chase Oliver (L) with 1%}} |- |style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/mainstreet_PA_June_2024_Public.pdf Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University] |rowspan="2"|May 30–31, 2024 |1,012 (RV) |± 3.1% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''41%''' |39% |8% |12% |- |923 (LV) |± 3.1% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''43%''' |42% |7% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/PA_ELEC_2024_SPRING_REPORT.pdf Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" |April 15–25, 2024 |417 (RV) |± 6.0% |'''35%''' |'''35%''' |18% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Common-Ground-in-the-Commonwealth-Q1-2024-Survey-Analysis-Updated.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=commonwealth|Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation}} | data-sort-value="2024-04-9" |March 22–26, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''44%''' |41% |7% |8% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-28-30-december-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2024-01-08" |December 28–30, 2023 |1,069 (LV) |– |39% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |9% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-29-november-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-12-05" |November 27–29, 2023 |887 (LV) |– |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%''' |7% |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/07/us/politics/rfk-jr-trump-biden-poll.html/ New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-10-15" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (LV) |± 4.6 |'''35%''' |'''35%''' |23% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-7-9-october-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-10-15" |October 7–9, 2023 |900 (LV) |– |'''39%''' |'''39%''' |9% |13% |- |} ;Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Cornel<br/>West<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24496689-cnn-pennsylvania-poll CNN/SSRS] | data-sort-value="2024-03-22" |March 13–18, 2024 |1,132 (RV) |± 3.8% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''40%''' |16% |4% |4% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2023/11/231105-Morning-Consult-Bloomberg-2024-Election-Survey-All-States-Toplines.pdf#page=109 Bloomberg/Morning Consult] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" |October 30 – November 7, 2023 |805 (RV) |± 3.0% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''41%''' |8% |1% |12% |- |} ;Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Gavin<br/>Newsom<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF|Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''51%''' |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-at-45-biden-at-43/ Emerson College] | data-sort-value="2024-02-20" |February 14–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |33% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''48%''' |19% |} ;Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Gretchen<br/>Whitmer<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |48% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |3% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |8% |} ;JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | JB<br/>Pritzker<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |37% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |13% |} ;Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Josh<br/>Shapiro<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-trump-dead-heat-pennsylvania Fox News] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |1,034 (RV) |± 3.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''54%''' |44% |2% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF|Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%''' |46% |7% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/PA_Elec_Dec23_Report_FINAL.pdf Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |37% |15% |} ;Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Josh<br/>Shapiro<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Jill<br/>Stein<br/>{{nobold|Green}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=clean}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 17–18, 2024 |624 (RV) |± 3.8% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%''' |43% |3% |1% |6% |} ;Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Pete<br/>Buttigieg<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Donald<br/>Trump<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{efn-ua|name=PAF}} | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024 |537 (RV) |– |41% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''50%''' |9% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley <!-- Leave graph hidden until there is a primary victor --><!-- {{Graph:Chart | width=750 | height=300 | xAxisTitle= | xAxisMax=1730764800000 | yAxisTitle=%support | xAxisAngle = -40 | legend=Candidate | interpolate = bundle | size = 1.5 | xType = date | y1Title=Biden | y2Title=Haley | y3Title=Other/Undecided | type=line |xGrid= |yGrid= | x= 2023/04/20 | y1= 45 | y2= 45 | y3= 10 | colors = #3333FF, #E81B23, #DDDDDD, | showSymbols = 0.8,0.8,0.8 | symbolsShape = circle }}--> {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Nikki<br/>Haley<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/2023-decemberpapresidentialelectionsurvey/ Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |33% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''38%''' |29% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/06/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-likely-electorate.html New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-11-05" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |39% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |12% |- |} ;Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Nikki<br/>Haley<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other ! class="unsortable" | Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-29-november-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-12-05" |November 27–29, 2023 |887 (LV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''36%''' |26% |18% |7% |13% |- |} <!-- Leave graph hidden until there is a primary victor --><!-- {{Graph:Chart | width=750 | height=300 | xAxisTitle= | xAxisMax=1730764800000 | yAxisTitle=%support | xAxisAngle = -40 | legend=Candidate | interpolate = bundle | size = 1.5 | xType = date | y1Title=Biden | y2Title=Trump | y3Title=Kennedy Jr | y4Title=Other/Undecided | type=line |xGrid= |yGrid= | x= 2021/11/16, 2022/02/16, 2022/07/21, 2022/07/24, 2022/08/23, 2022/09/07, 2022/09/26, 2022/10/31, 2022/11/06, 2023/02/26, 2023/04/07, 2023/04/13, 2023/06/26, 2023/09/26, 2023/10/2, 2023/10/04, 2023/10/09, 2023/10/10, 2023/10/23, 2023/11/03, 2023/11/04, 2023/11/09 | y1= 45, 45, 42, 42, 42, 48, 45, 44, 46, 48, 36, 46, 46, 48, 45, 36, 43, 39, 44, 44, 45, 44 | y2= 51, 40, 41, 44, 47, 43, 46, 44, 52, 41, 35, 42, 47, 45, 47, 45, 42, 39, 42, 48, 49, 47 | y3= 4, 15, 17, 14, 11, 9, 9, 12, 2, 11, 29, 12, 7, 19, 15, 13, 14, 8, 6, 9 | colors = #3333FF, #E81B23, #DDDDDD, | showSymbols = 0.8,0.8,0.8 | symbolsShape = circle }}--> ;Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Ron<br/>DeSantis<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/2023-decemberpapresidentialelectionsurvey/ Muhlenberg College] | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |November 20 – December 13, 2023 |421 (RV) |± 6.0% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''41%''' |39% |20% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/06/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-likely-electorate.html New York Times/Siena College] | data-sort-value="2023-11-05" |October 22 – November 3, 2023 |600 (RV) |± 4.6% |43% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''47%''' |10% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1656328949096497155 Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" |May 2–8, 2023 |700 (LV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%''' |39% |12% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.mcclatchydc.com/article274385065.html Public Opinion Strategies (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-04-13" |April 11–13, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |42% |{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%''' |13% |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://netchoice.org/new-national-poll-89-of-americans-say-congress-should-focus-on-addressing-inflation-not-breaking-up-tech/ Echelon Insights] | data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 31 – September 7, 2022 |828 (LV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''46%''' |42% |12% |} ;Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Ron<br/>DeSantis<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Robert<br/>Kennedy Jr<br/>{{nobold|Independent}} ! class="unsortable" | Other ! class="unsortable" | Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-29-november-2023/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies] | data-sort-value="2023-12-05" |November 27–29, 2023 |887 (LV) |– |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''37%''' |34% |13% |3% |12% |- |} ;Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)<br/>administered ! Sample<br/>size{{efn|name=key}} ! Margin<br/>of error ! class="unsortable" | Robert F.<br/>Kennedy Jr.<br/>{{nobold|Democratic}} ! class="unsortable" | Ron<br/>DeSantis<br/>{{nobold|Republican}} ! class="unsortable" | Other /<br/>Undecided |- |style="text-align:left;"|[https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1656328949096497155 Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)] | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" |May 2–8, 2023 |700 (LV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%''' |38% |20% |} {{hidden end}} === Canceled debate === {{main|2024 United States presidential debates}} In November 2023, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced it would host its sole vice presidential debate at [[Lafayette College]] in [[Easton, Pennsylvania|Easton]] on September 25, 2024.<ref name=ScheduleQual>{{Cite web |last=Cohen |first=Ethan |date=November 20, 2023 |title=Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates |url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/politics/presidential-debate-dates/index.html |access-date=November 21, 2023 |website=CNN |language=en |archive-date=November 20, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231120230006/https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/politics/presidential-debate-dates/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref> However, in May 2024, both the Biden and Trump campaigns declined to participate in CPD-sponsored debates due to conflicts with the commission regarding the [[2020 United States presidential debates|2020 debates]]. An alternative set of dates were scheduled by the campaigns themselves, effectively canceling the original schedule.<ref name=APMay15>{{cite news|url=https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-presidential-debates-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8|title=Biden and Trump, trading barbs, agree to 2 presidential debates, in June and September|last1=Boak|first1=Josh|last2=Miller|first2=Zeke|last3=Colvin|first3=Jill|work=[[Associated Press]]|date=May 15, 2024|accessdate=May 17, 2024|archive-date=May 16, 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240516231754/https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-presidential-debates-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8|url-status=live}}</ref> === Trump rally shooting === {{main|Attempted assassination of Donald Trump}} On July 13, 2024, Trump was injured in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of [[Butler, Pennsylvania]]. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by [[United States Secret Service|Secret Service]] agents until the shooter was killed by members of the [[Secret Service Counter Assault Team|Counter Assault Team]]. One rally-goer died and two others were critically injured.<ref>{{cite news |title=Trump injured in shooting at Pennsylvania rally |first=Jeremy |last=Herb |display-authors=etal |work=[[CNN]] |date=July 13, 2024 |access-date=July 13, 2024 |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/13/politics/trump-injured-pennsylvania-rally/index.html}}</ref> ==See also== * [[United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania]] * [[2024 United States presidential election]] * [[2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries]] * [[2024 Republican Party presidential primaries]] * [[2024 United States elections]] ==Notes== {{notelist|refs=<ref name="key">Key:<br/>A – all adults<br/>RV – registered voters<br/>LV – likely voters<br/>V – unclear</ref>}} ;Partisan clients {{notelist-ua}} ==References== {{Reflist|30em}} <!--List lower-alpha grouped templates--> {{2024 United States elections}} {{State results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election}} <!-- Per [[WP:BIDIRECTIONAL]], please DO NOT ADD template "State of XXXXX" here --> [[Category:2024 United States presidential election by state|Pennsylvania]] [[Category:United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania|2024]] [[Category:2024 Pennsylvania elections|Presidential]]'
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